Renewal of Ganges water deal in doubt

The 30-year Ganges Water Sharing Treaty between Bangladesh and India is heading towards an uncertain future, with New Delhi reportedly reluctant to renew the existing agreement automatically and considering a shorter-term arrangement.

With the treaty set to expire on December 12, the two neighbours face the challenge of reaching a fresh understanding amid competing demands over the river’s dwindling dry-season flows.

India is unlikely to renew the agreement automatically without a bilateral visit by Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, The Economic Times reported on October 31, quoting sources familiar with the discussions.

The possibility of an automatic extension is reportedly becoming increasingly remote, while the timing of Rahman’s proposed visit to India remains uncertain.

The negotiations are proving difficult as Bangladesh seeks stronger and more reliable guarantees over its dry-season water allocation, while stakeholders in India want greater consideration of the growing freshwater requirements of their states.

The uncertainty has raised concerns in Dhaka over whether a replacement agreement can be finalised before the existing treaty expires, potentially affecting water availability in Bangladesh’s southwestern districts, particularly during the dry season.

Bangladesh has made it clear that it wants a fresh agreement rather than a straightforward extension of the existing arrangement.

Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee said on October 8 that Dhaka was seeking a longer-term deal incorporating a guarantee clause to safeguard the country’s required share of Ganges water.

He said Bangladesh wanted the restoration of a guarantee provision similar to the one included in the 1977 agreement, which ensured that the country received 80 per cent of its scheduled lean-season allocation. The provision was dropped from the 1996 treaty.

Anee said the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) was working on a new arrangement, with technical discussions expected to be followed by ministerial-level engagement.

Dhaka’s concerns, however, are not confined to shortages during the dry season. Anee said Bangladesh also wanted safeguards against excessive water flows during the monsoon, which can trigger floods and cause damage to agriculture and the wider economy.

He stressed the need for cooperation based on scientific evidence, data sharing and basin-wide management.

Foreign Affairs State Minister Humaiun Kobir said on October 5 that Bangladesh would take whatever decision best served its national interests and security.

The following day, he said the government’s committee was ready and Dhaka was awaiting a final response from its Indian counterparts. He also indicated that Rahman had not ruled out a bilateral visit to India.

India, meanwhile, has maintained that river-related issues should be addressed through existing bilateral mechanisms.

External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on September 29 that the Joint Rivers Commission would discuss all river and water-sharing matters, including the Ganges. He also confirmed that technical-level meetings had continued.

According to The Economic Times, New Delhi is considering a shorter tenure for the proposed arrangement, although the report did not specify its possible duration.

There are also growing calls in India for a broader river-basin management approach, including measures to address heavy siltation around the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal, which can affect water flows in adjoining areas.

Located about 20 kilometres upstream of Bangladesh, the barrage regulates the flows covered by the treaty.

Signed on December 12, 1996, the agreement governs the sharing of Ganges water at Farakka during the lean season, from January 1 to May 31. Under its formula, the two countries share the available water equally when the flow is 70,000 cusecs or less.

The arrangement also provides for each country to receive 35,000 cusecs in alternating three 10-day periods between March 11 and May 10.

The BNP has maintained that the existing framework does not adequately safeguard Bangladesh’s agricultural interests and has called for the restoration of the guarantee provision contained in the 1977 agreement.

As a downstream country dependent on the river for irrigation, fisheries, navigation and livelihoods, Bangladesh considers predictable water flows essential to protecting its economy and communities.

The proposed visit by Rahman has added a diplomatic dimension to the negotiations.

NDTV reported on October 23 that the prime minister could visit India in late November or early December, although neither government had announced any dates. Kobir said the visit would take place within a proper bilateral framework.

With only weeks remaining before the treaty expires, both governments face mounting pressure to reach an understanding on the future of the arrangement. Failure to conclude a replacement treaty or an interim agreement could leave water-sharing arrangements uncertain from December 13.

For Dhaka, the central demand remains an enforceable guarantee of its fair share of Ganges water, alongside protection against excessive monsoon flows. New Delhi, for its part, has to accommodate the competing freshwater requirements of its eastern states.

The negotiations will therefore test the two countries’ ability to reconcile their respective interests through diplomatic engagement and sustained cooperation over a shared river.