Review of the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement and Need of the Padma Barrage

The Ganges is a transboundary river approximately 2,600 km long with a catchment area of about 1,087,000 km spanning India, Nepal, China, and Bangladesh.

While the river flows exclusively through India and Bangladesh, India contains about 79% of the total basin area. Although Bangladesh occupies only 4% of the total basin area, this represents 37% of its land.

The river originates from the Gangotri Glacier in the Himalayas and flows southeast into Bangladesh, where it empties into the Bay of Bengal. Major tributaries, the Karnali, Gandak, and Kosi, contribute approximately 41% of its annual flow and 71% during the dry season.

During the monsoon season, the Ganges River experiences a substantial increase in flow, with about 80% of its annual discharge occurring from July to October.

Conversely, during the dry season, upstream water diversion and naturally low flows leave the river insufficient to satisfy both Indian and Bangladeshi demands, severely impacting socio-economic conditions in Bangladesh.

Construction of Farraka Barrage: The construction of the Farraka Barragewas approved in April 1960, and it was constructed by India between 1962 and 1970. The Farakka Barrage stands 75 feet high and 7,000 feet long. By 1970, only its feeder canal remained unfinished.

It operationalized later, but the Farakka Barrage ultimately failed to fulfil its core objective. While it successfully diverted water to flush the Hooghly River, it did not effectively resolve the siltation issues plaguing the Port of Calcutta. Instead, the diversion triggered long-lasting national interest conflicts over water scarcity downstream.

Post-Independence Negotiations (1972–1976): Following Bangladesh’s independence, the two nations signed the 1972 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Peace, establishing the Indo-Bangla Joint River Commission (JRC) to manage shared rivers and enhance the dry-season flow of the Ganges.

By 1974, the feeder canal was operational. In April 1975, both countries signed a 41-day interim agreement allowing provisional operation of the barrage from April 21 to May 31 (for 41 days). This agreement explicitly stated it was not a final commissioning; continuous operation remained conditional on reaching a mutually acceptable solution.

However, India continued operating the barrage after the deadline expired without a permanent agreement. In response, Bangladesh raised the Farakka issue at the UN General Assembly in 1976, forcing bilateral discussions that led to a formal water-sharing agreement.

The Five-Year Agreement and Subsequent Deadlock (1977–1995): In November 1977, India and Bangladesh signed a five-year agreement. During the critical lean period of late April, it allocated 34,500 cusecs to Bangladesh and 20,500 cusecs to India.

Crucially, a “guarantee clause” ensured Bangladesh would receive at least 80 percent of its scheduled allocation if total river flows dropped unexpectedly. But this treaty expired in November 1982, it was replaced by a two-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

This MOU omitted the 80 percent guarantee clause, effectively allowing India to withdraw water unrestricted. The MOU expired in May 1984, resulting in a diplomatic deadlock.

To break it, Bangladesh proposed building a storage dam to conserve monsoon water as long termsolution, while India suggested a link canal to divert Brahmaputra water into the Ganges.

Bangladesh rejected the link canal due to severe ecological and land-division concerns. Consequently, no water-sharing mechanism existed from 1989 to 1996.

The 1996 Historic Treaty: Bilateral discussions resumed in 1991, culminating in the historic 30-year Ganges Water Treaty on December 12, 1996.

The treaty regulates dry-season flows (January to May) using fifteen 10-day cycles based on historical data from 1949 to 1988. It establishes a three-stage diversion framework:
Above 75,000 cusecs: India can divert up to 40,000 cusecs, leaving the remainder for Bangladesh.

70,000 to 75,000 cusecs: Bangladesh is guaranteed 35,000 cusecs, with India receiving the balance.

Below 70,000 cusecs: The flow is shared equally (50-50) between both countries.
Historically, flows exceed 70,000 cusecs during 60 percent of the dry season, triggering equal sharing for the remaining 40 percent. Notably, from March 11 to May 10, both nations alternate receiving a guaranteed baseline of 35,000 cusecs.

OGDA Study (1996–2000): Following the signing of the historic treaty on Ganges water sharing at Farakka on December 12, 1996, an international seminar was held in the Prime Minister’s Conference Room in Dhaka in March 1998, focusing on Water Resources Management in Bangladesh, particularly concerning the Ganges River.

Co-sponsored by the Government of Japan, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank, the seminar gathered senior officials from India, Nepal, China, and various development partners. Discussions led to a decision to establish a framework for the optimal use of the Ganges water under the treaty.

To address this issue, the Ministry of Water Resources directed WARPO to study options for the Ganges Dependent Area (OGDA).The 1996 treaty establishes specific dry-season rules: from March 11 to May 10, India and Bangladesh alternate receiving a guaranteed flow of 35,000 cusecs over three 10-day periods. If flows drop below 70,000 cusecs, India must release at least 90 percent of Bangladesh’s formula-allocated share until both nations reach a mutual agreement.

Despite these provisions, the water Bangladesh receives under this framework is roughly half of its pre-1975 availability. In the year 2000, to address this severe dry-season deficit, OGDA pre-feasibility study concluded that building a Padma Barrage was the only viable solution to augment flows, recommending a site at Pangsha, 37 kilometers downstream of the Gorai River off take.

Feasibility Study and Design Specifications (2009–2017): Following four years of research initiated in 2009, a comprehensive 13-volume feasibility study for the Ganges Barrage near Pangsha in the Rajbari District was completed in 2013.

The study outlined a $4 billion, 2.1-kilometer concrete structure designed to regulate water, expand irrigation, and mitigate flooding. Initially scheduled for construction between 2014 and 2020, the project featured the following engineering and ecological specifications:
Implementation of Padma Barrage Phase 1 (2026 and beyond): The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) administration has revived the initiative, re-designated as the Padma (Ganges) Barrage Project. To ensure fiscal feasibility, the government has split the megaproject into two distinct phases.

Phase 1 has been approved at a cost of Tk 34,497 crore, funded entirely by the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). Scheduled to run from July 2026 to June 2033, Phase 1 aims to directly benefit nearly 70 million people across 19 districts in the Khulna, Dhaka, Rajshahi, and Barishal divisions.

The completed project is projected to boost the national economy by contributing 0.45 percent to Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), yielding an annual economic return of Tk 8,000 crore. Amid recurring dry-season water crises, the execution of the Padma Barrage stands as a pivotal infrastructure priority for the government.

(The writer: Ex-Director General, WARPO)