Remittance lifeline under threat amid war in Gulf

The renewed conflict in the Middle East, following a brief period of calm, has raised fresh concerns over the future of Bangladesh’s overseas employment sector, with economists and labour market experts warning that prolonged instability could significantly reduce manpower exports and remittance earnings.

With an estimated seven million Bangladeshi migrants living and working across the Middle East, the region remains the country’s largest overseas labour market and the principal source of remittance income.

Experts warn that any prolonged disruption could curb overseas recruitment, weaken foreign exchange earnings and place additional pressure on Bangladesh’s already strained domestic job market.

According to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET), Bangladesh’s overseas employment remains heavily concentrated in Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

BMET data shows that overseas migration slowed sharply during the first quarter of the year.

Emigration clearance fell from 95,095 workers in January to 65,634 in February, before dropping further to 44,661 in March, indicating growing uncertainty among both migrant workers and overseas employers.

Recruiting agencies said many workers who had completed migration formalities are now delaying their departure because of security concerns, while employers have become more cautious in issuing visas amid economic uncertainty caused by the conflict.

The Middle East accounted for more than 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s over one million overseas workers in 2025 and contributed around 60 per cent of the country’s record US$32 billion remittance earnings, underlining Bangladesh’s heavy dependence on the region.

Saudi Arabia remained the largest destination for Bangladeshi workers in 2025, receiving about 752,000 workers, followed by Qatar (169,000) and Kuwait (42,496).

Between 1 January and 5 June, a total of 314,362 Bangladeshis migrated for employment. Of them, 190,072 travelled to Saudi Arabia, 23,780 to Qatar, 8,753 to Kuwait, 7,353 to Jordan, 7,121 to the United Arab Emirates and 3,091 to Iraq, according to BMET.

Labour market analysts said the figures clearly demonstrate Bangladesh’s overwhelming dependence on the Middle East, leaving its overseas employment sector highly vulnerable to regional instability.

Former Secretary General of the Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (BAIRA) Ali Haider Chowdhury said uncertainty had affected workers even after receiving migration clearance.

“Many workers who have already received clearance are reluctant to travel because of security concerns,” he told The New Nation.

“Employers are naturally hesitant to issue visas amid the business slowdown,” he added.

Ali Haider warned that any prolonged decline in overseas recruitment would eventually reduce remittance inflows, one of Bangladesh’s most important sources of foreign exchange.

Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Fahmida Khatun said a sustained fall in overseas employment would further worsen the country’s economic challenges.

“If overseas employment declines due to a prolonged conflict, it will further aggravate economic challenges,” she said. “Migrant families would suffer from reduced income and job losses.”

She noted that more than two million young people enter Bangladesh’s labour market each year, while around one million seek employment abroad.

However, only about 100,000 secure formal employment within the country annually.

“With private investment already low, a decline in overseas jobs would create a double burden for the employment sector,” Fahmida said.

She also stressed the need for stronger diplomatic engagement with Gulf countries to protect Bangladeshi workers and ensure support during emergencies.

Another former BAIRA Secretary General, Shameem Ahmed Chowdhury Noman, said recruitment across several Middle Eastern countries had already slowed because of prolonged regional conflicts.

“For a long time, worker recruitment in around 10 to 12 Middle Eastern countries has declined because of the war,” he said.

“There is very little Bangladesh can do if the recruiting countries themselves are facing economic and security difficulties. Until the situation returns to normal, we will have to wait.”

However, Noman described the latest crisis as a reminder that Bangladesh must reduce its dependence on Gulf labour markets.

“We should not rely only on the Middle East. There are opportunities in Europe and the Far East. The government must actively work to develop these new markets,” he said.

He identified inadequate diplomatic representation and lengthy visa procedures as major barriers to entering new labour destinations.”In many European countries, Bangladesh does not have adequate consular services.

Employers are often unwilling to wait through lengthy visa processing, causing Bangladesh to lose labour market opportunities,” he said.

Noman urged the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to simplify visa procedures, expand diplomatic services and explore online processing where possible.

He also emphasised the need to prepare workers through skills development, language training and cultural orientation before sending them to new destinations.

While welcoming the government’s commitment to overseas employment, reflected in its election manifesto, he said longstanding challenges—including high migration costs, expensive airfares, delays in visa processing and slow government-to-government recruitment procedures — must be addressed to maintain Bangladesh’s competitiveness.

Labour market experts said safeguarding Bangladeshi migrants in the Middle East remains the immediate priority.

Over the longer term, they argued, Bangladesh must diversify overseas labour markets, improve workforce skills and remove administrative bottlenecks to reduce the economy’s dependence on a single region and strengthen the resilience of its remittance sector