Inflated figures painted rosy GDP picture
Bangladesh’s GDP growth figures were overstated by 0.7 to 1.30 percentage points from fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, with fabricated and inconsistent data allegedly used to advance a political development narrative during the previous Awami League government, according to a forensic audit commissioned by the Planning Ministry.
Finance and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir disclosed the findings at a seminar titled ‘Peer Review of Forensic Audit Report on GDP Estimates’, organised by the Ministry of Planning at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) headquarters in Agargaon, Dhaka, on Saturday.
He said estimates from seven sectors, particularly those relying on administrative and secondary sources rather than direct field surveys, had been manipulated to inflate economic growth.
“Since 2014-15, we have observed a pattern of inconsistencies in the national accounts,” he said, adding that the discrepancies were intended to serve political interests and promote a particular development narrative.
AK Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and a member of the expert committee, presented the audit findings. The committee, led by Dr Enamul Haque and Dr Atanu Rabbani, examined 22 manufacturing subsectors and identified substantial inconsistencies in industrial production and value addition estimates.
According to the report, average real GDP growth increased from 6.27 per cent in FY11-FY14 to 7.39 per cent in FY15-FY19, a rise of 1.12 percentage points. Manufacturing accounted for 0.4627 percentage points, or around 41 per cent, of the additional growth. Medium and large industries contributed nearly 79 per cent of this increase, while their share of GDP rose from 15.16 per cent to 18.25 per cent.
However, the committee questioned whether the sharp increases in several manufacturing subsectors reflected actual economic activity or weaknesses in data collection and estimation.
Abnormal industrial growth
The cement industry was among the most striking examples.
The report found that value addition from cement production using imported clinker had not been properly calculated, while changes in inventories were inadequately accounted for. Consequently, the sector was recorded as growing by 61.6 per cent, 51.7 per cent and 45.9 per cent in three consecutive years.
Shipbuilding also recorded extraordinary growth of 242.4 per cent in FY2014-15 and 97.6 per cent in the following year. The committee questioned whether these figures resulted from counting a single large shipbuilding order, preliminary activities such as steel cutting, or the output of one establishment as the production of the entire subsector.
The discrepancies were particularly concerning given that the readymade garment (RMG) sector, which accounts for 34.84 per cent of the Quantum Index of Industrial Production, recorded a slowdown in average growth from 13.55 per cent to 8.69 per cent between the two periods.
In contrast, growth in non-metallic minerals, including cement and brick production, jumped from 2.32 per cent to 25.67 per cent, while textile growth increased from around 0.05 per cent to 8.14 per cent. Small transport equipment, machinery and electronics recorded increases of 38.9, 30 and 28.3 percentage points respectively.
The committee also found that some industrial estimates relied on data from a single establishment. Petroleum refining, for example, was recorded as growing by 87.4 per cent in FY2015-16 before contracting by 50.3 per cent the following year, based solely on information from Eastern Refinery.
Discrepancies across sectors
Titumir said the audit identified inconsistencies in cement, petroleum, revenue and export statistics. Cement production figures did not correspond with the value addition recorded in GDP, while export figures reported by the Export Promotion Bureau, Customs and Bangladesh Bank also differed.
He said National Board of Revenue data had shown inconsistencies before the introduction of the Integrated Budget and Accounting System (iBAS). The government had decided to treat Bangladesh Bank’s export figures as authoritative and had taken steps to address the discrepancies.
The adviser said the RMG sector was largely unaffected because reliable primary data were available, leaving less scope for manipulation.
The committee’s findings also referred to earlier concerns raised by international and domestic organisations. A 2022 World Bank analysis using satellite-based nighttime lights data found discrepancies with official GDP growth estimates.
The 2024 White Paper Committee also questioned sustained growth figures, citing inconsistencies with tax collection, private investment and bank lending. The IMF gave Bangladesh’s national accounts compilation framework a ‘C’ grade in 2024.
Reforms to restore credibility
Titumir said the forensic audit had followed scientific research methods, including peer reviews by economists, statisticians and independent researchers, without administrative or political interference.
The government is introducing computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) and geocoding for field-level data collection. It also plans to use Bangladesh Bank data instead of Customs figures and cross-check industrial production against independent indicators such as electricity and gas consumption.
The committee recommended strengthening the BBS’s institutional independence and technical capacity, ensuring reliable primary data, following international standards and making GDP estimation and revision methods more transparent.