Will Hasina really return?

Ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina faces formidable legal obstacles to returning to Bangladesh, including a death sentence handed down in absentia, an ongoing extradition request to India and the government’s refusal to issue her a new passport or travel document.

Despite these hurdles, the exiled Awami League chief has reiterated her intention to return in December, prompting strong claims of support from party leaders and activists but scepticism among political analysts and rival politicians.

While Awami League leaders insist that she will fulfil her promise and say they are preparing to welcome her, analysts question whether the 79-year-old leader can realistically return under the present circumstances.

Some observers view her December announcement less as a concrete travel plan than as a political strategy to maintain her influence over the party and keep its activists mobilised.

Zillur Rahman, head of the Centre for Governance Studies, said Hasina was fully aware of the consequences she could face if she returned. He believes her declaration is primarily intended to keep party leaders and activists politically active while retaining her absolute control over the Awami League.

Former US diplomat Jon F Danilowicz also sees little realistic prospect of her returning to Bangladesh at present. He believes Hasina’s request for a new passport and national identity card (NID) is mainly intended to shift responsibility onto the Bangladesh government for allegedly preventing her from coming home.

In a post on his X account on Monday, Danilowicz said the move might also reflect an effort by her hosts in India to find a third country willing to accommodate her, potentially resolving what he described as their “Hasina problem”.

Former International Crimes Tribunal chief prosecutor Tajul Islam raised a similar question in a Facebook post on Tuesday, asking whether Hasina’s passport application was merely a routine administrative step or part of a calculated political strategy.

He argued that she was playing a “double game”. If the application were rejected, she could use the decision as an excuse for not returning in December. Conversely, if she received a passport, she could legally leave India and seek refuge in another safe country.

Government rules out her political return
Government ministers have taken a firm position against Hasina’s return to active politics, describing her as a convicted criminal and ruling out any scope for her or her party to resume political activities.

Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed, speaking in Parliament on Wednesday under Rule 300 on the third day of the fourth session, compared Hasina’s departure to the flight of Nazi leaders from Germany.

He said those who fled after the uprising, whom he described as “fascist Awami forces”, would never be allowed to return and engage in politics in Bangladesh. On Friday, he reiterated that the people would never again accept the Awami League’s political activities.

Law Minister Md Asaduzzaman said on Sunday that legal procedures were under way to bring Hasina back to face justice.

“To me, she is a criminal. She is a convict, sentenced by our tribunal,” he said.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humayun Kabir said the government would not issue her a passport or travel pass, adding that extradition remained the only available route for bringing her back.

NCP convener and Opposition Chief Whip Nahid Islam made an even stronger statement on Saturday, ruling out her return in December. “There is no chance of Apa coming to this country in any December. Even if she comes, the gallows is ready for her, Inshallah,” he said.

Dhaka has formally requested New Delhi to extradite Hasina, while India has said the request is under examination. The Bangladesh government has maintained that she would be entitled to due legal process in all cases against her if she returned.

Awami League leaders confident of her return
Despite the legal and political uncertainties, Awami League leaders contacted by this correspondent expressed strong confidence that Hasina would return as announced. Some, however, spoke on condition of anonymity.

Organising Secretary SM Kamal Hossain told The New Nation on Sunday that Bangladesh needed Hasina because, according to him, every sector of the country had been destroyed.

“Bangladesh cannot run without Sheikh Hasina,” he said, alleging that the rule of law had broken down and even freedom fighters were being denied burial.

He said party leaders and activists, both at home and abroad, were preparing to gather to welcome her.
“In whatever way Sheikh Hasina returns, we will be with her and will resist all odds,” he said, adding, “There will be a fight. There is no way to backtrack.”

Asked about the death sentence against Hasina, Kamal said the party was unconcerned about the verdict, which he dismissed as the outcome of false and fabricated cases.

An Awami League joint general secretary also expressed complete confidence in her return.
“Once she declares she will return, there is no doubt about it. Our leader will return in December defying death threats to restore democracy and peace,” he said.

Organising Secretary Sujit Roy Nandi, who is currently living in Kolkata, said party leaders and activists were preparing to accompany Hasina to Bangladesh.

“We can’t sit idle here. We are all coming in December with Sheikh Hasina to take back Bangladesh,” he said. He expressed confidence that people would welcome her as they had done in 1981, when she returned from exile. Activists claim preparations under way
Grassroots leaders and former student activists also claimed that preparations were already under way to organise a reception for Hasina and mobilise party supporters.

Anowar Hossain, a member of an Awami League sub-committee and former joint secretary of the Bangladesh Chhatra League, said Hasina was determined to return.

“Since she declared she will return in December, a hundred per cent she will come,” he said. He claimed that senior party leaders had sent activists a “final message” and preparations for welcoming her had begun. He also claimed, without providing evidence, that around 60 per cent of Bangladeshis now wanted her back.

Imran Hossain, a former Chhatra League leader who said he was facing around a dozen cases, claimed to have maintained contact with Hasina through WhatsApp. According to him, she had instructed him to prepare for street mobilisation in December.

Al Amin Hossen Armin, a vice-president of the Keraniganj Chhatra League who currently lives in Qatar, also expressed certainty about the planned return.

“Yes, definitely we are coming in December,” he said.
Although he could not confirm the exact date, he said he would travel to Bangladesh under the leadership of Shahin Ahmed, chairman of Keraniganj Upazila Parishad. Attempts to contact Ahmed for comment were unsuccessful.

Hasina was ousted in the July 2024 mass uprising and has been living in India since then. In November 2025, she was sentenced to death in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal for crimes against humanity over the crackdown on the uprising. She has rejected the charges and described the verdict as an act of political vengeance.