Bangladesh faces growing uncertainty

The 30-year Ganges water-sharing treaty between Bangladesh and India is set to expire on December 12, 2026, raising concerns over Bangladesh’s future access to transboundary river flows and the shape of future cooperation between the two countries.

The treaty was signed in 1996 for 30 years and has governed dry-season water sharing since 1997.

The water-sharing arrangement profoundly affects the lives of around 630 million people who directly or indirectly depend on the Ganges river system for their livelihoods and survival, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.

The treaty governs the dry-season flow of the Ganges between January and May at the Farakka Barrage in India.

The treaty is based on discharge of the Ganges at Farakka over the period 1949-1988, covering the pre-Farakka and post-Farakka periods. Since the operation of Farakka began, however, concerns have persisted in Bangladesh over declining dry-season flows amid increased upThe New Nation use for agriculture and other purposes.

River and water management expert and BRAC University emeritus professor AinunNishat told The New Nation, “There are some areas in Bangladesh that face severe freshwater shortages … not just drinking water, but water for agriculture, navigation, and fish cultivation is also affected.

Bangladeshi residents are being displaced. Already, many from Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, and Barguna are moving north or to other places but Bangladesh does not officially admit it.”

Bangladesh has often raised concerns that during a number of dry-season periods it did not receive the amount of water expected under the treaty.

A review of 1997-2016 data cited by The Diplomat found that Bangladesh received less than its stipulated share in 94 of 300 ten-day periods.

“India is not going to distribute water considering Bangladesh’s economic needs, but there are major social implications as well,” Nishat said.

“This is not just a legal matter but an economic, social, and institutional issue too, but who will take responsibility?” he asked.

“Both countries have a Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), but these bodies are politically influenced and practically powerless. As a result, the old average flow values used in the treaty do not match the current reality,” Nishat said.

When The New Nation earlier spoke to Dr Mohammad AbulHossenTuhin, then Director of the Joint Rivers Commission, he said efforts were underway to renew the treaty.

“Bangladesh and India will form a joint technical committee within the next three months to renew the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty,” Tuhin said at the time.

Since then, negotiations have moved closer to the treaty’s expiry deadline, while Bangladesh’s publicly stated position has also changed.

On September 24, 2026, Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee said Bangladesh wants a new Ganges water-sharing treaty rather than simply renewing the 1996 agreement.

He said the Joint Rivers Commission was working towards a new agreement containing guarantee provisions to help ensure Bangladesh receives its due share during the dry season.

As a lower-riparian country, Bangladesh needs greater certainty over dry-season flows, he said.

The position represents a significant development in the negotiations, with Bangladesh now publicly seeking stronger terms rather than an extension of the existing arrangement.

The current treaty already provides a formula for sharing available water at Farakka. According to Bangladesh’s Joint Rivers Commission, when availability is 70,000 cusecs or less, the flow is divided equally; between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives 35,000 cusecs; and when the flow is 75,000 cusecs or more, India receives 40,000 cusecs and Bangladesh receives the balance.

It also provides that each country receive 35,000 cusecs in alternate three 10-day periods between March 11 and May 10.

Bangladesh’s latest demand, therefore, centres on stronger guarantees over its required share when overall dry-season availability falls.

The government had already signalled in August that it would seek better terms.

State Minister for Water Resources Forhad Hossain Azad said on August 20 that Bangladesh would seek a higher share of Ganges water in the next arrangement and argued that stronger guarantees were necessary for the downThe New Nation country.

India, meanwhile, has said the issue should continue to be discussed through established bilateral mechanisms.

On September 29, 2026, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said all matters involving the Ganges and other shared rivers would be discussed through the Joint Rivers Commission.

“We have a Joint River Commission and all matters related to rivers-water sharing, including the Ganges, will be discussed as part of the commission,” Jaiswal said, adding that technical-level meetings concerning the Ganges treaty had continued.

India had expressed a similar position in June, saying the treaty would be considered within existing bilateral mechanisms, including the JRC.
Technical preparations have also continued during 2026.

Experts from Bangladesh and India began a four-day meeting in Kolkata on May 20 and jointly visited the Ganges at the Farakka Barrage to assess water flow.

Officials later exchanged their assessments as part of the 90th Technical Committee Meeting of the Joint Rivers Commission.

Despite those exchanges, no new treaty had been announced as of September 30, 2026, leaving the two countries with less than three months before the existing agreement expires.

Future water availability
Research published in the International Journal of Water in 2007, titled “The Ganges water-sharing treaty: risk analysis of the negotiated discharge,” by water management expert M MonirulQaderMirza warned that if upThe New Nation withdrawals above Farakka continued to increase, both India and Bangladesh could face difficulty receiving the amounts envisaged in the treaty.

The study found that Bangladesh did not receive its full treaty share in two years between 1997 and 2001.

“If India continues to take more water upThe New Nation, Bangladesh is likely to suffer more than India in the future, which is a serious concern for Bangladesh,” Nishat said.

The 30-year agreement was signed in December 1996. Bangladesh has for years sought stronger safeguards resembling those contained in the 1977 arrangement.

Between 2002 and 2008, Bangladesh proposed strengthening the agreement with a guarantee provision and an arbitration mechanism, but such amendments were not incorporated into the existing treaty.

The question of a stronger guarantee has now returned to the centre of negotiations ahead of the December 2026 expiry.

According to an earlier memorandum of understanding, both countries agreed to pursue basin-wide management of shared rivers. However, comprehensive basin-wide management has yet to take shape.

Mohammad AbulHossen, who headed the Bangladeshi delegation to the Joint Rivers Commission at the time, told the media on March 4, 2025, that the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement was being followed.

“Water flow was satisfactory in January but decreased slightly in February,” he said.

Officials of Bangladesh and India held the 86th meeting of the Joint Rivers Commission in Kolkata on March 6-7, 2025, where discussions included the future of the treaty.

Bangladesh also decided on April 17, 2025, to ratify the UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, commonly known as the UN Water Convention.

Earlier that month, then chief adviser’s high representative Khalilur Rahman sought cooperation from India in discussions over the treaty.

At the time, officials in Dhaka said an internal committee had been formed to deal with the matter and that contacts with New Delhi were continuing.

Those earlier discussions have now evolved into the current effort to negotiate a new arrangement before December.

Concern over shared rivers
The concerns surrounding the Ganges also reflect Bangladesh’s broader difficulties over transboundary rivers.

According to Bangladesh Water Development Board reports cited by The Third Pole in 2021 and 2022, the flow of the Teesta River into Bangladesh drops sharply during the dry season from December to May.

The reduction has frequently been linked to upThe New Nation abstraction around India’s Gajoldoba Barrage in West Bengal, contributing to water shortages in downThe New Nation areas including Rangpur, Nilphamari and Lalmonirhat.

“Every country has its laws, and India has specific laws regarding international water disputes, but only the law would be helpful to address the problem,” Nishat said.

“Does Bangladesh have any kind of political power, so that Bangladesh will tell India anything on water-sharing issues? The 30-year Ganges treaty was the political outcome,” he said.

Nishat warned that inadequate dry-season flows could severely affect Bangladesh’s agriculture, water availability, economy, society and food security.

He said Bangladesh needed to raise issues affecting its interests more forcefully in bilateral discussions.

“India raises its voice where its interests lie, and Bangladesh must do the same thing. We must speak up on the issues, especially those activities that are harming us,” he said.

“But in all discussions on the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement so far, I haven’t seen this issue addressed.

I don’t know whether the current government will take this up or if it will be left to the next one; however, I can see a major crisis ahead,” Nishat added.

“During the dry season, we get very little water, and I don’t think this problem will be solved.

According to my engineering knowledge, it cannot be fixed unless Bangladesh and the upThe New Nation country come to a clear agreement on water distribution,” he said.

The dry-season issue
“The whole concept of ‘water sharing’ is flawed, but somehow our experts, engineers, politicians, and bureaucrats are still stuck on dry-season flows, which have persisted since the Pakistan era, even since 1972,” Nishat said.

Referring to conditions during his interview on August 1, 2025, he said the contrast between monsoon and dry-season flows illustrated the problem.

“We get plenty of water during the monsoon. Today is August 1, 2025. If I go to Teesta now, I’d find 2 to 3 lakh cusecs of water. If it goes beyond 3, everyone starts panicking about floods.

But in the dry season, there’s only 6,000 cusecs, and India takes all of it. And Bangladesh gets nothing,” he said.

Nishat argued that future cooperation should move beyond seasonal allocation and towards management of water throughout the year.

“By storing monsoon water and releasing it gradually throughout the year, the water crisis would be solved.

By storing monsoon water and releasing it gradually year-round, Bangladesh can also generate hydropower, which would be the real solution,” he recommended.

“But right now, there is no agreement between Bangladesh and India for year-round water management, and I have never supported the water ‘sharing’ term,” Nishat said.

With the existing treaty due to expire on December 12, Bangladesh is now seeking a new agreement with stronger safeguards while India says negotiations will continue through the Joint Rivers Commission and other established bilateral mechanisms.