Winter ahead, but warmth may persist
Bangladesh is likely to experience above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during October, November and December 2026, according to seasonal forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).
The outlook suggests that warmer-than-usual conditions may persist as the country transitions from autumn to winter, although occasional cold spells and cooler nights remain possible.
In its seasonal outlook published on October 14, the WMO forecast normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of South Asia during October-December. Bangladesh is among the countries expected to experience these conditions.
The BMD’s seasonal forecast, issued on October 23, also points to a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the country during the October-November-December (OND) period.
According to the BMD forecast, the probability of above-normal temperatures stands at 60-70 per cent in the northern and western regions, rising to around 70-80 per cent across much of the central, eastern, southern and southeastern parts of the country.
The national outlook also indicates a greater likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the three-month period. The probability of below-normal rainfall is estimated at 50-60 per cent across most parts of Bangladesh, while the southeastern region has a comparatively lower probability of 40-50 per cent.
The forecasts suggest that Bangladesh may experience a relatively warm and dry transition into winter.
However, seasonal predictions indicate overall trends and do not mean that temperatures will remain high every day or that rainfall will be absent throughout the period.
Winter is expected to set in gradually, with northern and northeastern districts likely to feel cooler conditions earlier than other parts of the country.
Dhaka and several other areas may experience a more noticeable seasonal change later in November. Despite the broader warming outlook, temperatures could still drop temporarily, particularly at night.
The expected weather conditions come amid forecasts of a strengthening El Niño, which the WMO said could peak around December 2026. The climate pattern, associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, can influence global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
The WMO has warned that El Niño could contribute to above-average temperatures across large parts of the world and alter rainfall distribution, increasing the risk of droughts in some regions and flooding in others. Its effects, however, are expected to vary by location.
Bangladesh has already experienced unusually hot conditions in recent months. An analysis by Climate Central found that the country recorded 31 risky heat days between June and August 2026, of which 25 were attributed to human-caused climate change. The country’s average temperature during the three-month period was 0.7 degrees Celsius above normal, the analysis found.
With above-normal temperatures likely to continue into the final months of the year, the seasonal forecasts point to a potentially warmer-than-usual start to winter in Bangladesh, even as cooler spells remain possible.
