Ganges Water Treaty: A New Determinant in Bilateral Relations
AMIDST the ongoing tensions in relations between Bangladesh and India, the term of the Ganges water-sharing treaty is set to expire in just three months, on December 11.
Under this bilateral agreement signed in 1996, there is a provision to extend the term while maintaining the existing terms and conditions, subject to mutual consent.
According to media reports, various forms of pressure have mounted in both countries against replicating the provisions of the current agreement exactly in any future deal.
A major issue looming over Bangladesh is that, yet discussions on how Ganges water will be shared from the coming December 12th had not even commenced.
Given the current political reality, there are no immediate signs that discussions will commence.
In such a situation, the governments of both countries could leverage the Ganges Water Treaty to create an opportunity for normalizing bilateral relations.
The biggest consideration when signing the 1996 agreement was when and how much water would be released to Bangladesh at Farakka during the dry season.
We do not think it will be easy for the two countries to agree on a future agreement in comparison. Because the actual flow in the Ganges may vary in the future due to various factors, including climate change and upstream water withdrawal.
Questions may also arise during negotiations between the two countries-such as whether flow can be increased by constructing reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Ganges within Nepal and Bhutan, or whether a safeguard clause guaranteeing a specific amount of water to Bangladesh during the dry season will be included.
As a downstream nation within the vast Ganges basin, it is crucial for the people of Bangladesh that a water-sharing agreement exists and remains effective.
During the dry season, a reduction in water flow downstream of Farakka threatens to disrupt irrigation, agriculture, fisheries, the supply of potable water, and navigation in areas dependent on the Ganges-Padma river system and its tributaries.
The government must immediately make robust preparations to safeguard the interests of the people.
Of the 54 shared rivers, there is an agreement between the two countries only regarding the waters of the Ganges.
Consequently, water sharing remains a major sticking point in their bilateral disputes.
There is a precedent of India backing out at the last minute in 2011, despite having reached a consensus on the draft of the Teesta Treaty.
Time is running out. Bangladesh and India must urgently upgrade their diplomatic engagement, bringing ministers back to the table to secure not just the Ganges but the future of the Teesta and the rest of our shared river basins.
