Dhaka mum while Indian media turn up heat

Speculation over Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s possible visit to India has gathered pace, with Indian media reports putting forward specific dates for a trip that Dhaka has yet to officially confirm.

Several Indian media outlets have reported that Rahman could travel to New Delhi in the second half of August, with some reports suggesting August 22-23 for what would be his maiden visit to India as prime minister.

Indian media NDTV reported that preparations were under way in both capitals and that a meeting between Tarique Rahman and his counterpart Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was expected.

Bangladesh, however, remains publicly non-committal about the reported August visit

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that India has earlier extended two invitations to Rahman. One is for a bilateral visit to New Delhi, while the other is to attend the 18th BRICS Summit and its outreach programme scheduled for September 12-13.

Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman earlier said the government was reviewing the BRICS invitation, while Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi said New Delhi was “eagerly looking forward” to welcoming the Bangladesh prime minister and hoped the visit would take place soon.

What is drawing attention in Dhaka is the apparent difference in tone between the two sides. While Indian media have been actively reporting a possible August visit, Bangladesh has not announced any date or confirmed that preparations for such a trip have reached the final stage.

The speculation has also been fuelled by Trivedi’s recent diplomatic engagements. During his meetings with Bangladeshi officials, the Indian envoy said there was no bilateral problem that could not be resolved through mutual understanding and suggested that matters could move forward constructively once Rahman visited India.

Tarique Rahman himself has indicated that Bangladesh wants better relations with India, but has also stressed the need for a “conducive environment” for improving ties.

The prime minister made the remarks during his first meeting with Trivedi amid continuing disagreements, particularly over former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India and Dhaka’s extradition request.

The Hasina issue remains the most politically sensitive matter between the two countries after Hasina fled Bangladesh for India in August 2024 following the fall of her government.

Dhaka has subsequently sought her extradition, while India has said the request is being examined through the appropriate legal and diplomatic channels. The issue has remained a major irritant in bilateral relations.

The political sensitivity of a possible India visit has already surfaced at home.

NCP Convener Nahid Islam has recently opposed a visit by Tarique Rahman before the Hasina extradition issue is resolved, arguing that normal relations with India cannot resume while the former prime minister remains in India.

The timing is also politically significant as the government is dealing with a number of domestic pressures, including fuel and gas shortages and load-shedding, while opposition parties and groups have been taking to the streets over various issues.

The presidential election is also approaching, adding another layer of political sensitivity to any decision by the prime minister to travel abroad.

Against this backdrop, questions are being raised in diplomatic circles over why New Delhi appears keen to see Tarique Rahman in India quickly.

Diplomatic engagements of this level normally require considerable groundwork, particularly when the agenda includes difficult issues such as trade, connectivity, energy, border management, water sharing and the extradition of a former head of government.

Such preparation is generally expected to take weeks, if not months, when both sides want a leaders’ meeting to produce tangible outcomes.

India, meanwhile, appears to be placing considerable emphasis on direct political engagement.

The reported meeting between Tarique Rahman and Trivedi has added to the speculation.

Following the meeting, Trivedi travelled to New Delhi and met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with photographs of their meeting subsequently circulating in the media.

The sequence of events has prompted speculation that New Delhi is seeking to convey the importance it attaches to a direct meeting between Narendra Modi and Tarique Rahman.

India has already made clear that it wants the relationship with Dhaka to move forward.

The Indian envoy’s public remarks in July that New Delhi was “eagerly” awaiting Rahman’s visit were unusually direct for diplomatic messaging.

There are also substantive reasons for New Delhi to seek an early political reset.

India and Bangladesh need to address a broad range of unresolved issues, including trade and transit, energy cooperation, border management and connectivity.

Water sharing is likely to become increasingly important as the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty approaches its expiry in December.

If the prime minister visits India without securing meaningful progress on issues of public and political concern, particularly the Hasina extradition question, the trip could expose the government to criticism at home, observers said.

Opposition parties could portray an inconclusive visit as a diplomatic setback at a time when the government is already facing pressure over domestic economic and political issues.

In June, Tarique Rahman made his maiden official overseas tour to Malaysia and China in June, including a visit to Beijing.

The China visit resulted in a series of memorandums of understanding and bilateral agreements and underscored Dhaka’s intention to maintain balanced relations with major regional powers.

But the questions are being raised in different circles whether such a visit to New Delhi can produce enough concrete outcomes.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam has also indicated that the situation could evolve considerably within a month, leaving the timing of the prime minister’s India engagement open.

For now, Indian media reports are moving considerably faster than official confirmation from Dhaka.

The two invitations from New Delhi are real. The desire for a bilateral meeting is clear. The Indian side has publicly expressed its eagerness to welcome Tarique Rahman.

But a specific August date remains unconfirmed by Bangladesh.