Can a Trilateral Security Pact Bring Peace to the Middle East?

The political and security landscape of the Middle East appears to be entering a new phase.

The recently signed Mecca Joint Security Pact among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan has attracted considerable attention because it comes at a time when the region is facing serious security challenges and growing uncertainty over existing security arrangements.

The idea of regional cooperation among Muslim-majority countries is not new. Pakistan, Iran and Türkiye once took the initiative to establish the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD).

At that time, Reza Shah Pahlavi ruled Iran and Field Marshal Ayub Khan led Pakistan, while both maintained close relations with the United States. Yet the initiative ultimately failed to develop into a durable regional organisation.

Today, however, the geopolitical circumstances are very different.

A Changing Regional Equation
The 1979 Islamic Revolution fundamentally changed Iran’s domestic politics and its relationship with the West. Relations between Tehran and Washington have remained deeply contentious ever since.

More recently, Iran’s confrontation with the United States and Israel has demonstrated its military capabilities, while also revealing the enormous costs of prolonged conflict.

Against this background, the United States has increasingly faced pressure to seek some form of accommodation with Iran.

Pakistan’s military leadership, particularly Field Marshal Asim Munir, is believed to have played a constructive role in creating an environment conducive to dialogue and de-escalation.

It was in this uncertain environment that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Makkah Joint Security Pact.

Observers believe that an immediate objective is to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s security and protect vital interests in the Gulf. But the significance of the agreement could extend well beyond Saudi Arabia.

A Collective-Defence Arrangement
Following the signing, the three countries said that the agreement seeks to strengthen their collective capacity to deter and respond to aggression.

Most significantly, an armed attack against any one of the signatories will reportedly be treated as an attack against all three.

The precise military obligations of each country, however, have not been publicly explained in detail.

The agreement nevertheless emphasises collective security and the promotion of peace, stability and security both within and beyond the region.

A spokesman for the Turkish presidency has stressed that the pact is not directed against any particular country. Rather, it is intended to strengthen the collective defence and deterrence capabilities of the three signatories.

A Turkish source cited by Reuters described it as essentially defensive and based on mutual assistance in self-defence. The possibility of other regional countries joining has also reportedly been kept open.

The growing military tensions involving Israel and Iran provide an important backdrop to the agreement.

Why Saudi Arabia Is Seeking Alternatives
For decades, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on the United States for its security. Recent developments, however, have raised questions about the reliability and limits of that dependence.

Following the escalation of hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran, attacks and counterattacks involving Iran and its allies have increased the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia and other US partners in the Gulf.

Energy infrastructure and export routes have consequently become matters of international concern.
Any prolonged disruption of oil and gas supplies from the Gulf could have consequences far beyond the Middle East.

It could trigger energy-price shocks, disrupt international trade and worsen inflationary pressures worldwide.

Therefore, an initiative genuinely aimed at preventing further escalation deserves serious consideration.

Built on Existing Defence Cooperation
The Makkah pact did not emerge overnight. Reports suggest that preparations continued for about a year. More importantly, the three signatories already had extensive defence and security cooperation.

Pakistan has long trained members of the Saudi armed forces. Türkiye and Pakistan have developed close defence cooperation, including naval and aviation projects. In 2023, Saudi Arabia signed a major agreement to purchase Turkish drones, described as one of the largest export deals in Türkiye’s defence industry.

Pakistan has also maintained a significant military presence in Saudi Arabia, including personnel and military assets.

These developments indicate that the three countries had already been moving towards closer security cooperation. The new pact can therefore be viewed as a formalisation of an existing strategic relationship rather than an entirely new arrangement.

A New Regional Security Architecture?
Security analysts have begun assessing the broader implications of the agreement. London-based security analyst Alex Alfiraz Shears, speaking to Al Jazeera, suggested that the pact could indicate a significant restructuring of the Middle East’s security architecture.

As questions about the reliability of US security guarantees increase, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan may increasingly seek alternative forms of strategic cooperation.

But the agreement has also faced criticism. Iranian parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei reportedly dismissed it as a “paper agreement”, arguing that it could not provide Saudi Arabia with genuine security.

Yemen’s Houthi movement has likewise warned that Saudi forces and their allies in Yemen cannot expect their security to be guaranteed by such an arrangement.

Such reactions highlight the central challenge facing the pact: a security agreement can strengthen deterrence, but it cannot by itself resolve the political conflicts that produce insecurity.

The Wider Geopolitical Stakes
The Middle East has long been a theatre of competition over oil, gas, trade routes and strategic influence.

European powers once exercised considerable control over the region, much of which later shifted towards the United States. Russia has also maintained significant influence, while China and India have become increasingly important players.

India’s strategic relationship with Israel is well established, while its relationship with Pakistan remains deeply adversarial. Pakistan, meanwhile, has no diplomatic relations with Israel. Türkiye’s relations with India have also experienced tensions.

Japan, another major economic power, remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies.

These overlapping interests mean that the Makkah pact will inevitably be assessed not only as a regional security arrangement but also as part of a much wider geopolitical competition.

Peace Must Be the Common Objective
The real test of the Makkah Joint Security Pact will be whether it contributes to stability rather than creating another military bloc in an already divided region. If the signatories genuinely maintain the agreement’s declared defensive character, it could become a useful mechanism for collective deterrence, crisis management and regional cooperation.

But military deterrence alone cannot bring lasting peace. The Middle East needs dialogue, confidence-building, respect for sovereignty, protection of energy and trade routes, and political solutions to its major conflicts.

Despite their differences, almost all countries with interests in the Middle East share one fundamental concern: they need the region to remain peaceful and stable. That common interest should become the foundation of regional diplomacy.

The Makkah pact may prove to be an important step towards a new regional security framework. Whether it becomes an instrument of peace or merely another element in the Middle East’s balance of power will depend on how responsibly its signatories use their collective strength.

For now, the world should welcome every initiative that reduces the prospect of war. But lasting peace will require more than a security pact. It will require a regional political order in which security is achieved through cooperation rather than perpetual confrontation.

(The writer is the Advisory Editor of The New Nation)