China corridor offers geo-economic gains

The government should carefully assess the economic benefits and long-term strategic implications of a proposed Bangladesh-Myanmar-China economic corridor before making any commitment, experts have said, describing the initiative as primarily a geo-economic rather than a geopolitical project.

The proposal resurfaced during Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s recent visit to China, where Beijing expressed interest in strengthening regional connectivity through a transport and trade corridor linking the three countries.

Md Obaidul Haque, Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, said China was pursuing the initiative mainly to diversify its trade routes and facilitate commerce.

“The potential of a Bangladesh-Myanmar-China corridor is immense. China has clear geo-economic considerations behind the proposal. It is not looking to build a military base here; it wants to expand trade and business,” Haque told The New Nation.

He said China was increasingly concerned about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca—often referred to as the “Malacca Dilemma”—through which much of its trade and energy imports pass.

“As the Malacca route becomes increasingly critical and vulnerable, China is naturally looking for alternatives. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz have further reinforced China’s desire to avoid risks. Since Kunming is a landlocked province, China prefers routes that provide easier access to the sea,” he said.

According to Haque, China has consistently sought multiple transport corridors to support its expanding trade network. It already has economic corridors with Myanmar and Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and has explored investments in Iran’s ports and energy sector.

The concept of linking Bangladesh, Myanmar and China’s Yunnan province dates back to the Kunming Initiative proposed in 1999 by economist Professor Rehman Sobhan.

It later evolved into the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC), a proposed 2,800-kilometre transport network connecting Kunming with Kolkata through Myanmar and Bangladesh to boost trade, investment and connectivity.

The project received formal backing in 2013 but lost momentum after China incorporated it into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India subsequently raised strategic concerns and gradually distanced itself from the framework, effectively stalling the initiative.

The latest proposal excludes India and instead focuses on connectivity among Bangladesh, Myanmar and China.

Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman has described the initiative as a purely economic proposal aimed at improving regional connectivity and trade efficiency.

“The primary objective is to improve regional connectivity, reduce transportation costs and transit time, and enhance Bangladesh’s competitiveness,” he recently told reporters.
He said Bangladesh could benefit substantially by using Myanmar’s ports and transport infrastructure.

“If Bangladesh can utilise Myanmar’s existing ports and transport infrastructure, it would significantly reduce the time and cost of importing raw materials and transporting goods,” he said, adding that lower logistics costs could improve export competitiveness, attract more foreign investment and enhance the efficiency of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector.

Analysts also believe the corridor could provide Bangladesh with quicker access to Chinese markets, strengthen regional supply chains, promote industrial cooperation and create opportunities in transit trade, logistics, warehousing and cross-border investment.

However, Myanmar’s continuing internal conflict, particularly in Rakhine State, remains a major challenge for any large-scale connectivity project.

Haque said China was fully aware of Myanmar’s security situation and would factor such risks into its planning.

“China understands very well that Myanmar has insurgency-related problems. Security is an issue, but China will address that aspect. It is even possible that certain routes could bypass conflict-prone areas,” he said.

He nevertheless stressed that Bangladesh should focus on maximising the project’s economic returns rather than viewing it primarily through a geopolitical lens.

“This is not a matter that should be viewed mainly from a geopolitical perspective. Its economic importance is far greater,” he said.

Given the initiative’s long-term implications, Haque urged the government to conduct a comprehensive assessment involving not only the Foreign Ministry but also think tanks and policy experts before taking any decision.