Trump lands China to meet Xi: US-China summit seeks stability amid rivalry

As Air Force One touched down at Beijing Capital International Airport on Wednesday evening, the world witnessed a moment nearly nine years in the making, amid ongoing economic rivalry between the United States and China.

President Donald Trump’s second state visit to China – originally delayed by the exigencies of the 2026 Iran war – represents more than a diplomatic courtesy; it is a high-stakes attempt to stabilise a bilateral relationship that has reshaped the international order.

Welcomed by a military honour guard and 300 flag-waving students, the American delegation arrived in a capital increasingly viewing the United States as a “giant with a limp,” fatigued by conflict in the Middle East. This “state visit-plus” seeks to manage strategic competition spanning from Silicon Valley’s semiconductor laboratories to the contested waters of the South China Sea.

The visit has already yielded tangible, though temporary, economic relief through what is being called the Kuala Lumpur Agreement. Following intense negotiations between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, both nations agreed to significant tariff and trade concessions. The United States will reduce the so-called “fentanyl” tariff from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, lowering the total tariff on Chinese goods to 47 per cent. In return, China will suspend its sweeping rare earth export controls for one year, easing pressure on global technology and defence sectors.

Further concessions include a one-year pause on port fees for vessels and a commitment by Beijing to resume large-scale purchases of American soybeans and other agricultural products.

The presence of a delegation of 16 leading CEOs, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, underscores the enduring economic interdependence despite rhetoric of decoupling. Analysts caution, however, that these measures may be “band-aids” rather than lasting policy shifts.

Regionally, the summit carries important implications for Southeast Asia, where US-China competition is most pronounced. Public opinion data suggest a “collective action problem” across the region. China is increasingly influential in countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam, but often lags behind the United States in perceived benefits.

The Philippines remains a notable outlier, with its public viewing the US as both more influential and beneficial than China. In Vietnam, economic dependence on China is counterbalanced by nationalist sentiment and territorial disputes in the South China Sea, creating a pronounced “positivity deficit.”

The summit’s focus on arms sales to Taiwan and maritime security is particularly sensitive. Analysts expect Xi Jinping to urge Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence and potentially recognise Beijing’s claim over Taiwan, rather than merely “acknowledge” it-a concession that could weaken Taiwan’s defensive capacity. Discussions on the Strait of Hormuz are also anticipated, reflecting the broader regional stakes.

On the global stage, the Trump-Xi encounter is framed as a defining moment for the 21st-century international order. China increasingly presents itself as a leading voice of the “New South,” offering a development model focused on infrastructure, technology transfer, and sovereignty.

The expansion of BRICS and the New Development Bank reflects a global search for strategic autonomy among developing nations, with Beijing’s rhetoric of a “community with a shared future for humanity” resonating beyond the Western-led system.

Despite optimism over new trade deals, underlying economic data remain sobering. Research from the 2018-2019 trade war indicates that US consumers and firms bore the brunt of tariffs, while manufacturing employment was negatively impacted. Aggregate real income in both countries fell, even if the overall effect on GDP was relatively small.

The presence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth-the first US Secretary of Defense to accompany a president to China since 1972-highlights the military dimension of the relationship. Washington seeks assurances that Beijing will not supply advanced weaponry to Tehran amid the ongoing Iran war.

Ultimately, the summit appears designed to stabilise a volatile relationship rather than resolve deep-seated disputes. Concessions on rare earths and tariffs offer a welcome “cooling-off period,” yet fundamental rivalries over AI, semiconductors, and global influence remain unresolved.

As President Trump visits the Temple of Heaven and prepares for a formal banquet, both nations signal recognition of a “new starting point in history.” Whether this “state visit-plus” evolves into lasting cooperation or remains a tactical pause in an inevitable competition remains the key question for the global order.