‘Is Taiwan a dangerous flashpoint?’ A question of strategic ambiguity, deterrence, and military brinkmanship in the 21st century
By Shaila Solaiman and Farzana Fatima :
“If deterrence and diplomacy fail, the military takes over.”
Taiwan is a contentious geopolitical issue that has set both established and rising global powers in confrontation.
The Taiwan Strait is a highly unstable geopolitical hotspot with a strategic position in the Indo-Pacific and the western Pacific region. This has attracted the focus of both regional and extra-regional powers, leading to a polarization of forces that has been intensifying since 1971.
Mohd Aminul Karim’s book “Is Taiwan a Dangerous Flashpoint?” is a timely analysis of a highly unstable geopolitical topic of our day.
The book, released in February 2025 by NOVA Science Publishers, is a 160-page volume that provides an in-depth examination of a probable war among key nations of the Indo-Pacific region in the Taiwan Strait, including China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and Australia.
A security expert and former professor at the University of Malaya, Dr. Karim has examined the Taiwan issue in terms of strategic and historical aspects. As China sticks with its ‘One China’ policy and considers Taiwan a part of the Chinese mainland, tensions continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan presents itself as a dangerous flashpoint, which has a potential for brinkmanship should diplomacy fail. All pertinent stakeholders, including the PRC, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, are preparing in case of hostilities.
Taiwan regulates both regional and global supply chains that might be interrupted in the event of a war. Taiwan manufactures the most advanced semiconductors, in which the United States holds significant investments. China regards Taiwan as a runaway province that requires reunification with the mainland, even by military intervention as a last resort.
The book comprises 12 chapters addressing the historical context of the issue, theoretical discourse, major power competition in the Indo-Pacific region, and critical flashpoints beyond Taiwan, such as the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. The strategic importance of Taiwan Island and its Strait for major powers like the United States and China is also discussed.
The book also discusses the triangular relationship among China, the United States, and Taiwan; strategic linkages among the entities; lessons acquired from the Russia-Ukraine conflict; and such future projections.
One of the most compelling chapters of the book applies and analyzes different prominent theories of international relations to the issues of Taiwan, such as deterrence, balance of power, security dilemma, alliance and alignment, and the action-reaction model. Theoretical formulations posit that the security dilemma between the USA and China contributes to the rise of tensions in the Taiwan Strait and has the possibility of leading to direct military confrontation.
The barrier to deterrence between the US and China, if breached, may result in a breakout of war in the Taiwan Strait. External balancing of the USA can be seen in the augmenting of military capabilities of Taiwan. The action-reaction cycle explains how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reciprocated the 2023 visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan by firing missiles and conducting military drills in the Strait.
The book sheds light on the United States’ strategic ambiguity regarding the China-Taiwan issue, specifically its support for the One China policy that it endorsed in 1971. Historically, the USA and China issued the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972 to normalize their relations.
President Clinton adopted the “three no’s” regarding Taiwanese independence, a separate Taiwanese government, and Taiwan’s statehood in multilateral organizations. However, the Taiwan Relations Act was signed in 1979, and during the first Trump administration, the US approved the Taiwan Travel Act 2018 and multi-billion-dollar arms sales. To unify Taiwan, the US is using democracy as an ideological beacon. As such, all the political parties of Taiwan deem the US a power that is indispensable for its long-term security.
Recently, the United States has increasingly shown determination to provide military support to Taiwan for clear geopolitical reasons, if circumstances require it. This development raises global concerns, paralleling the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. The world cannot afford another Russia-Ukraine conflict in any other region inside the same hemisphere. US support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war might be considered a repeated pattern in Taiwan’s case for a looming Chinese military intervention in the future.
The author suggests confidence-building initiatives and diplomatic engagements to forestall an imminent brinkmanship that may cause global and regional economic disruptions and further jeopardize global peace amidst the ongoing Hamas-Israel war and Russia-Ukraine war. The author highlights that China’s reunification objectives and the change in position of America’s strategic ambiguity to support Taiwan depict an unstable equilibrium. So, is Taiwan a dangerous flashpoint? The book suggests the answer is affirmative.
The book adds great value to the present body of literature on the Taiwan issue. This book is intended for university and college educators and students of international relations, peace and conflict, political science, pertinent think tanks, researchers, diplomats, military experts, the business community, and the general masses.
Shaila Solaiman is an Assistant Professor and acting chairman at the Department of International Relations, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP).
(Farzana Fatima is a Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP).)