India’s moment: Strategic autonomy or missed opportunity?

Murtoza Manzur :

India is no longer the country poised to become the world’s most populous; it already is. In 2023, India officially surpassed China in population, and with a much younger demographic profile, it holds what many are calling a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Its economy is growing steadily at over 6 per cent annually, and the country is home to a thriving tech sector, ambitious infrastructure projects, and an expanding middle class. As companies seek to reduce their dependence on China, global investors are increasingly eyeing India as a viable alternative.

Yet beneath this promising picture lies a complex reality. This article explores how India’s strategic positioning in global politics and its uneven domestic performance, particularly in foreign policy and economic reform, may hinder it from fully capitalising on this historic moment.
Strategic autonomy or mixed messaging?

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has embraced a foreign policy of what is often described as strategic autonomy or multi-alignment. Modi recently stated that India has moved from being equidistant from global powers to being equi-close, reflecting the nation’s ambition to engage with the United States, Russia, China, and others on its terms. Emphasising an “India First” approach, Modi highlighted that India’s foreign policy decisions are guided by national interest, aiming to befriend every nation while ensuring the country’s interests remain paramount.

In theory, this approach allows India the flexibility to navigate a multipolar world. In practice, however, it often results in ambiguity. India’s participation in the Quad, alongside the United States, Japan, and Australia, suggests a commitment to democratic alliances. Yet its continued defence ties with Russia and its facilitation of discounted Russian oil imports during wartime sanctions undercut its credibility as a democratic counterweight to China.

This balancing act may shield India from overdependence on any single power, but it also weakens its moral authority and complicates efforts to establish itself as a principled leader of the rules-based international order.

A regional power without regional coherence
India’s aspirations to be South Asia’s leading power are frequently undermined by inconsistencies in its regional diplomacy. It has backed Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh while remaining silent on democratic erosion, mismanaged relationships with Sri Lanka and Nepal and failed to articulate a consistent stance on the crisis in Myanmar.

These missteps suggest a foreign policy that is often reactive, highly centralised around personalities, and lacking long-term institutional strategy. Without a coherent regional vision, India’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood remains tenuous.

Growth without depth
India is now the fifth-largest economy in the world, but its growth story conceals underlying vulnerabilities. Unlike China, which achieved double-digit growth alongside industrial transformation, or Vietnam and Bangladesh, which have made significant gains in human development, India’s progress has been uneven and, in some areas, superficial.

The country continues to struggle with inadequate public education, underfunded healthcare, and incomplete reforms in land, labour, and taxation. A significant portion of the population lacks access to vocational training or higher education aligned with market needs. This disconnect between education and employment opportunities hampers productivity and limits upward mobility.

This challenge is especially critical when viewed through the lens of India’s demographic dividend — the economic advantage derived from having a large working-age population relative to dependents. With over 65 per cent of its population under the age of 35, India is theoretically well-positioned to benefit from this shift. However, a demographic dividend is not automatic.

It must be actively earned through sound policy, job creation, and sustained investment in human capital. Without sufficient skilling, healthcare access, and employment pathways, this youthful population could just as easily become a source of economic strain and social unrest.

This raises a sobering possibility: India may grow old before it grows rich, failing to capitalise on its demographic window just as global economic conditions become more protectionist and technologically demanding. The cost of inaction could be a generation of wasted potential — one that the country cannot afford to lose.

Seizing the moment
India does not lack ambition. It possesses the demographic scale, strategic location, and institutional foundation to emerge as a major global power. But this potential must now be matched by strategic clarity and policy discipline.

A more defined and principled foreign policy, rooted in democratic values rather than narrow self-interest, would enhance India’s international standing. Domestically, sustained investment in public services and inclusive growth is essential to ensure that economic gains translate into lasting national strength.

This is a rare geopolitical window. With China’s momentum slowing and the United States increasingly inward-looking, India has a unique opportunity to assert itself as a credible alternative on the world stage — a youthful democracy committed to stability, opportunity, and international cooperation.

But this will require more than ambition. Without meaningful reform and a clearer sense of direction, India risks remaining what it has so often been: a country of immense promise that never quite fulfils it.

(Murtoza Manzur holds a master’s degree in Peace and Conflict Studies from the University of Waterloo, specialising in South Asian politics and refugee issues. With professional experience in the public and non-profit sectors, his work focuses on policy analysis, advocacy, and international affairs, particularly in the areas of migration, social equity, and regional security.)