Spot LNG demand rises as power shortages

Reza Mahmud :

Energy experts have emphasised the need to explore the country’s own gas reserves to reduce its heavy reliance on imports, which are increasingly needed to meet the growing demand in the industrial sector.

Sources have revealed that since September, the relevant government agency has issued tenders for 23 LNG cargoes, a significant rise from just eight tenders in the same period last year. Experts have also raised concerns about the impact of this LNG import surge on the country’s dollar reserves.

“If the government prioritises the exploration of domestic gas reserves, LNG imports could be reduced,” said Energy Expert Professor Dr. Iajaz Hossain.

He cautioned that the government must remain vigilant regarding the dollar crisis as it continues to import large quantities of LNG.

However, he acknowledged that while exploring domestic gas fields takes time, it is also vital to import sufficient LNG to meet immediate demand.

Dr. Hossain also pointed out that previous governments had neglected to adequately explore additional gas fields, which could have mitigated the current reliance on imports.

Another energy expert, Professor Dr. Badrul Imam, stated that the surge in LNG imports is largely due to the declining production from domestic gas fields.

Both experts noted that while power generation has decreased, the dependence on imported LNG has escalated.
Bangladesh’s spot LNG imports have risen significantly during the first three months of the interim government under Muhammad Yunus, marking the largest increase on record.

This surge has occurred despite spot prices exceeding $13 per million British thermal units (mn Btu), a level that has deterred major buyers such as India and China.

This increase in LNG imports coincides with ongoing challenges in Bangladesh’s power sector, which has struggled to meet electricity demand due to unpaid power bills from the previous administration.

Power generation has stabilised following a sharp decline in August after the resignation of the former prime minister, with maximum power generation averaging 12.5 gigawatts (GW) in November, a 6 per cent increase compared to the same period last year.

The state-owned Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Ltd (RPGCL), operating under Petrobangla, remains the sole LNG importer for the country, providing over half of its electricity supply. Since September, RPGCL has issued tenders for 23 LNG cargoes, including several reissued calls, a significant increase from just eight tenders in the same period last year.

This brings the total number of tenders floated in 2023 to 27, according to data from Argus. Contracts have mainly been awarded to four suppliers-Vitol Asia, Gunvor Singapore, TotalEnergies, and Excelerate Energy – despite RPGCL maintaining a list of 23 potential global suppliers.

Of the 23 tenders issued since September, only nine were awarded, with Japan’s Jera securing one contract. The remaining tenders were either withdrawn or reissued, likely due to a lack of competitive offers. To expand its supplier base, RPGCL recently sought expressions of interest (EOIs) from companies interested in delivering LNG to Bangladesh.

This effort reflects the interim government’s new public procurement regulations, which require RPGCL to secure a minimum of three bids before awarding contracts, a departure from earlier practices under the Speedy Power and Energy Supply (Special) Act 2010.

This Act allowed exceptions to competitive tendering and shielded procurement decisions from legal challenges.

The revised approach under the Public Procurement Rules 2008 (PPR-2008) aims to promote transparency, competition, and fairness in the use of public funds, potentially curbing monopolistic tendencies in the LNG market.

Despite these reforms, some tenders have reportedly been awarded with only two bids to maintain continuity in supply, even as RPGCL works to comply fully with the PPR-2008 guidelines. It remains uncertain whether these changes will attract broader interest from global LNG suppliers, given Bangladesh’s reliance on imports to meet its long-term gas needs amidst limited domestic production.

As of 13 November, Bangladesh’s total gas production, including LNG, stood at 2,868 million cubic feet per day (mn ft³/d), or 29.5 billion cubic metres per year (bn m³/yr), according to Petrobangla. Comparative figures for the same period last year are unavailable. Domestic gas production, already weakened since the Covid-19 pandemic, has dropped to approximately 2,306 mn ft³/d, a 5 per cent year-on-year decrease.

To address these energy challenges, the interim government has launched initiatives to revitalise oil and gas exploration. Petrobangla has invited bids for the Bangladesh Offshore Bidding Round 2024, offering 24 blocks – nine shallow-sea and 15 deep-sea – potentially rich in oil and gas reserves. The submission deadline for bids has been extended from 9 September to 9 December 2024.