What’s the situation in Gaza and what happens next?
Rayhan Ahmed Tapader :
The US has proposed a draft resolution at the UN Security Council which calls for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. It has also warned Israel against invading the overcrowded city of Rafah. The US has previously avoided the word ceasefire during UN votes on the war, but President Joe Biden has made similar comments. However, the US plans to veto another draft resolution from Algeria which calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.
More than a million displaced Palestinians, who represent about half of Gaza’s population, are crammed into Rafah after being forced to seek shelter there. The southern city, which borders Egypt, was home to only 250,000 people before the war. Many of the displaced are living in makeshift shelters or tents in squalid conditions, with scarce access to safe drinking water or food.
The UN has issued its own warning that a planned Israeli offensive in the city could lead to a slaughter. Its aid chief says civilians in Rafah, like the entire population of Gaza, are the victims of an assault that is unparalleled in its intensity, brutality and scope. The UN says women and children continue to be killed in air strikes. The Israeli military has previously insisted it only targets Hamas fighters.
The United States has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza Strip ‘as soon as practical’ and opposing an Israeli ground offensive on the southern city of Rafah.
The US draft also warns Israel not to launch a ground offensive in Rafah, The Security Council should underscore that such a major ground offensive should not proceed, under the current circumstances.
Israel has said it plans to storm Rafah, where more than 1.4 million of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza have sought shelter.
Those plans have prompted widespread international concern that such a move would kill large numbers of civilians and sharply worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which is on the brink of famine, according to the UN. Algeria, the current Arab member of the Security Council, put forward an initial draft resolution more than two weeks ago, which would demand an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza.
The Algerian draft resolution was due to be put to a vote on recently. The US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield previously signalled that it would be vetoed, saying it could jeopardise the ‘sensitive negotiations’ on the captives taken by Hamas and other armed groups from Israel into Gaza on October 7. The US, Egypt, Israel and Qatar have held negotiations on a potential Israel-Hamas truce and the exchange of captives held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
For the first time, the US is proposing the word ceasefire. Since October 7, Washington has sought to shield its ally Israel from UN action and has twice vetoed Security Council resolutions. But it has also abstained twice, allowing the council to adopt resolutions that aimed to boost humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza and called for urgent and extended humanitarian pauses in fighting.
The US draft now raises the idea of a ceasefire but does not say there should be one straight away, so this may not be acceptable to the Russians.
Both the US and Russia are veto-wielding permanent members of the council. Noting Washington’s warning to Israel on launching an operation in Rafah, it showed that, according to the US, this operation would cause further harm to civilians and also lead to their displacement, particularly into neighbouring countries, which would in turn have serious implications on regional security. So something very clearly has changed in Washington in the last few days.
They’ve decided to be tougher on Israel. It is not immediately clear when or if the US draft resolution would be put to a vote. At least 29,092 people have been killed and 69,028 wounded in the Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip since October 7, according to Palestinian authorities. Washington has come under immense international pressure to use its leverage to rein in Israel’s devastating operations, having spent much of th6e war emphasising its ally’s right to self-defence.
There is a desperate need for increased humanitarian support to Gaza. It’s critical that aid gets in and the hostages are released. The UK Labour leader has called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza for the first time in an attempt to head off what threatens to be the biggest rebellion against Keir Starmer since he became party leader.
Opposition whips published a 237-word amendment to a Scottish National party motion on recently setting out the party’s stance on the Middle East crisis, which they hope Labour MPs will back instead of a separate amendment from the SNP calling more bluntly for an immediate ceasefire.
The Labour wording goes further than the party has in the past in calling for a ceasefire. Last weekend, Starmer said he wanted the fighting to ‘stop now’, but he has been reluctant to back an immediate and permanent ceasefire given that Hamas has threatened to carry out further attacks like the one on 7 October.
Although negotiations continue in the hope of a new deal being reached, for now it’s clear that the war has resumed. After weeks of intense fighting in the north of the Gaza Strip particularly around Gaza City Israel’s military now appears to be focussing much of its attention on the south, where renewed air strikes have been reported. The IDF has also created a map of Gaza divided into more than 2,000 zones, which it said will be used to help people in Gaza escape future fighting. It said the map is split into areas to enable people to evacuate from specific places for their safety if required.
(Writer: researcher and columnist
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