Climate, Covid and Ukraine-Russia war

Dr. Md. Shamsul Arefin :
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that if the Ukraine-Russia war continues the number of undernourished people globally would increase unimaginably. Food shortages are already acute in East Africa, which has had three years of drought leading up to this new food crisis. Erratic behavior of climate, drought, hit wave, excessive rain and recently experiencing huge economic collapse due to Covid 19 pandemic and recentUkraine-Russia war affected existing food shortages for a growing number of globalpopulations. Researcher argued that it may push some countries into famine and many people may face starvation.
Developed countries are facing even higher inflation, rising unemployment, and declining economic growth, just occurred due torecent past pandemic and ongoing Ukraine Russia War, which again triggered food crisis, food price shocks the world has ever seen. Russia and Ukraine are two most important agriculture commodity exporters in the world. Limited use of Ukrainian Ports and sanction on Russia has created tremendous difficultyin exporting foods that leads to food insecurity of many nations.
Data shows that Russia has an 18 per cent market share of global wheat exports, while Ukraine has a 10 per cent market share. For barley, Russia has a 14 per cent market share and Ukraine 12 per cent. In sunflower oil, Ukraine is the largest global exporter with a 37 per cent market share, while Russia has a 26 per cent market share. Russia is also a major exporter of fertilizers, which constitutes 17 per cent of the global supply. Practically every major crop in the world depends on inputs like potash and nitrogen, and without a steady availability, farmers’ face a harder time growing food. The most of the fertilizer or inputs of the fertilizer come from Russia.
The effect of the current food price spike generated potential cause of inflation, and food insecurity in developing counties already. Countries that largely rely on Russian and Ukrainian agriculture products now need to find alternative sources for their food immediately. In Egypt, people are worried that prices for the subsidized loaves of bread they depend now increasedfor the first time in four decades while Turkey is facing huge edible oil crisis and within Ukraine itself, food is running short in some major cities.
Just Covid 19 pandemic created unprecedented crisis over the world and before ending this pandemic officially, world has been experiencing againa new crisis of Russia Ukraine warfor which food, edible oil, fuel and fertilizer shortage triggered price hike, inflation, unemployment in poorer economics in recent times.
Global food prices are already at record highs, with the benchmark UN index increasing more than 40 per cent over the past two years and if this situation continues, food pricewill go up again. Food insecurity has doubled in the past one years, and the World Food Programme estimates 45 million people are on the brink of famine.
Again, errant presentation of clime change creates a high risk of food unavailability, and food insecurity in recent time. Higher average global temperatures and more extreme weather events associated with climate change reducedreliability of food production. Recent EU research suggests that up to 30 per cent of the expected increase in growth of European crops has been cancelled by adverse weather this year. Changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods have threatened food safety. Overall, climate behavior in Europe and in Asia created huge risk of food production.
We need to combat the negative impacts of climate change on food security in many different ways such as by decreasing greenhouse emissions to reduce the risk of climate change; improving the resilience of the global food system to climate change; and developing early warning systems that can warn us in due time when nature is about to ‘run wild’. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a “climate-smart food system” that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.
Climate change very likely intensified the South Asian monsoon that flooded Pakistan in recent past, killing more than 1,000 people and destroying nearly 2 million homes. Britain hit a new record for the highest temperature ever registered amid European heat wave. According to their country’s weather office, the nation hit a provisional reading of 40.2 degrees Celsius (104.4 degrees Fahrenheit) at London Heathrow Airport last year. The conditions have influenced travel, health care, education and food production. The runway at London’s Luton Airport was forced to close due to heat damage in July 2022. Elsewhere, the UK’s inflation rate has surged to a 40-year-high of 10.1 per cent in July 2022 (the Organisaton of National Statistics (ONS) reported on August 17). Already struggling with rising living costs, Europeans now face an even deeper hit to their livelihoods as the Russia-Ukraine war pushes fuel and food prices higher and threatens to a fragile food security. They are now worried about how they will survive in coming winter without heater and the poorer economies of the world are worried about to experience of food insecurity and price hikes.
Meanwhile, the covid-19 pandemic has placed an additional burden on agri-food systems exacerbating existing, systemic risks with cascading effects on lives, livelihoods, and economies worldwide.Investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction, especially data gathering and analysis for evidence-informed action, is of paramount importance to ensure required food production. Strategies need to integrate not only natural hazards, but also anthropogenic and biological threats, such as the covid-19 pandemic and need to understand of the systemic interdependencies of risks. Innovations such as remote sensing, geospatial information gathering, drones and disaster robotics, and machine learning are powerful tools that can reduce disaster risks in agriculture. In addition to efficient governance, it is crucial to promote public-private partnerships to address the urgent need for investment in reducing agriculture’s susceptibility to disasters and climate change. Climate change increasingly drives extreme weather shocks that cause more dramatic spikes in global food prices. Climate scientists have warned that global rainfall patterns will become more erratic as the planet warms, making both very wet and very dry periods more common.

(The writer is Adjunct Faculty, Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management).