India in election mode

Rahul Singh :
Though India’s general election is still at least two months away (no date has yet been announced), the country is already in election mode. It promises to be the most interesting election in independent India’s history. Why do I say so?
Rahul Gandhi, the vice president of the Congress Party is pitted against Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Though Gandhi has not been officially named as his party’s nominee for prime ministership, whereas Modi has been designated as such for the BJP, it is quite obvious that Gandhi is the man in charge. Like Modi, he has been campaigning tirelessly all over India. By all accounts, Modi has been attracting larger crowds than Gandhi. Opinion polls also say that Modi, rather than Gandhi, is the choice of the majority of voters as prime minister.
However, two new factors have recently come into play that could completely change the Modi versus Gandhi scenario. The first is the emergence of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (Common Man Party) and the second is the formation, just the other day, of an 11-party “Third Front”.
Let us take the AAP. It was formed only about two years ago, emerging from the protest movement led by the Gandhian reformer, Anna Hazare. Under Kejriwal it took political form and decided to fight the Delhi election, in which the two major players were the Congress and the BJP. The Congress was in power and the AAP was not taken seriously as a contender. To everybody’s utter amazement, except perhaps to those who voted for it, the AAP made a stunning debut, romping ahead of the Congress and only a few seats behind the BJP.
Since the BJP did not have a majority, it did not want to form the government. This enabled the AAP to stake a claim, with outside support from the Congress. However, the AAP-led government lasted only 49 days. It resigned over the clearance of the Jan-Lokpal (a kind of ombudsman) bill. The short period in power notwithstanding, the AAP, with its single-point agenda of eradicating corruption, clearly struck a powerful chord with the Delhi public. Now, it hopes that the chord will reverberate further in the rest of India.
It has already named 20 persons from its party who will stand for the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of the Indian Parliament, in the coming general election. Among them is Rajmohan Gandhi, grandson of the true Gandhi, the “Mahatma”. He is standing against the son of the former chief minister of Delhi, Sheila Dixit. Though he has a good chance of winning, realistically speaking, the AAP is not expected to win more than about 20 or so seats, mainly from Delhi and the adjoining state of Haryana. Yet, it plans to have candidates standing from all over the country and could take over some of the space of the BJP.
It was once famously said by a former prime minister of Britain that a week is a long time in politics. Two or three months, when the general election is due, is far longer. But that seems too short a time for a new political party, particularly in a vast nation like India, to make a significant national impact, however much a game-changer the AAP might be.
Let us now turn to the “Third Front”, which was formed on February 25. Consisting of 11 parties, mostly left-leaning, they have 92 representatives in the Lok Sabha, which amounts to about a sixth of the total, a sizeable number. It is conceivable that this Front could get more seats in the coming general election, perhaps even more than the Congress, which would put it in a commanding position, especially if the BJP gets only about 200 seats or less.
However, what is more intriguing is how the “Big Three Women” will fare and who they will side with. I am referring to Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati. All three are formidable characters. All three have prime ministerial ambitions, which they have not sought to hide.
Till now, all three have played their cards close to the chest. But once the results are out and depending on how well the big players, the BJP and the Congress, perform, they are bound to show their hand. There is also another fascinating possibility that is being talked about. A scenario where the BJP gets the largest number of seats, yet is unable to attract any allies, since they are all allergic to Modi. So, it brings out the octogenarian, yet highly respected, Lal Kishen Advani, who is more acceptable. And he achieves his life-long ambition of becoming prime minister! Didn’t I say this is the most interesting Indian election ever?

(Rahul Singh is the former editor of Reader’s Digest, Indian Express and Khaleej Times)