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Non-food costs offset inflation relief

A decline in food prices has offered some relief to consumers, but rising costs of transport, fuel and other non-food essentials continue to squeeze household budgets, leaving many families struggling to cope with the cost of living.

The pressure is further compounded by wage growth remaining below inflation for 57 consecutive months, weakening workers’ purchasing power despite a marginal fall in the headline inflation rate.

Bangladesh’s overall point-to-point inflation eased slightly to 8.27 per cent in October from 8.34 per cent in September, according to the latest Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data released on Monday.

However, the modest decline came alongside a sharp contrast between food and non-food prices, with food inflation falling to its lowest level in 54 months while non-food inflation climbed to a 41-month high.

Food inflation dropped to 6.40 per cent in October from 7.22 per cent in the previous month, marking a decline of 0.82 percentage point. The rate was the lowest since April 2022, when it stood at 6.23 per cent.

The easing was largely attributed to the arrival of early-season winter vegetables in markets, which helped improve supplies and reduce pressure on food prices.

In contrast, non-food inflation rose to 9.89 per cent in October from 9.30 per cent in September, an increase of 0.59 percentage point. This was the highest level in 41 months, approaching the 9.96 per cent recorded in May 2023.

Overall inflation declined by just 0.07 percentage point in a month but remained above the 8.17 per cent recorded in October last year, indicating that the cost-of-living challenge has yet to ease significantly.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of Policy Exchange, a Bangladesh-based private think tank, said the slight fall in overall inflation was encouraging, but persistently high non-food inflation left little room for complacency.

He attributed the decline in food inflation to the arrival of early winter vegetables, while higher fuel prices, increased transport costs and slower imports of raw materials were contributing to pressure on non-food prices.

Reaz said winter vegetable production begins before the season, with supplies reaching markets from October. This had helped ease food prices and bring down food inflation.

However, he warned that the effects of higher fuel prices were gradually spreading across the economy. Fuel prices were increased in September, raising transport and production costs. Higher energy expenses tend to feed into the prices of goods and services across different sectors over time, he said.

He also pointed to slower imports of raw materials. Although imports increased somewhat in the previous fiscal year, the current fiscal year had seen signs of slower growth or a decline.

This was disrupting production and restricting the supply of goods in the market, adding to inflationary pressure, Reaz said. Improving production and supply conditions would therefore be essential to sustain the downward trend in overall inflation.

The inflation trend varied between rural and urban areas, although both continued to experience rising non-food costs.

In rural areas, overall inflation eased to 8.29 per cent in October from 8.38 per cent in September, but remained above the 8.16 per cent recorded a year earlier.

Rural food inflation declined to 6.37 per cent from 7.18 per cent over the month. Non-food inflation, however, climbed to 10.21 per cent from 9.57 per cent, crossing the double-digit mark.

In urban areas, overall inflation edged down to 8.25 per cent in October from 8.26 per cent in September. Food inflation fell to 6.42 per cent from 7.25 per cent, while non-food inflation increased to 9.48 per cent from 8.94 per cent.

The BBS data also showed that the 12-month moving average inflation rate stood at 8.66 per cent for November 2025 to October 2026, down from 9.22 per cent during the corresponding period a year earlier.

The gap between inflation and wage growth continued to erode workers’ purchasing power, with the national wage rate index rising by 7.63 per cent in October, below the overall inflation rate of 8.27 per cent.

The BBS data showed that wage growth had remained below inflation for 57 consecutive months. The October rate was also lower than the 7.90 per cent recorded in September and the 8.01 per cent recorded in October last year.

The difference between wage growth and inflation stood at 0.64 percentage point in October, indicating that workers’ earnings were not keeping pace with rising living costs.

Wage growth slowed across all three major sectors of the economy – agriculture, industry and services.
In October, point-to-point wage growth stood at 7.55 per cent in agriculture, 7.62 per cent in industry and 7.96 per cent in services. The respective rates in September were 7.89 per cent, 7.86 per cent and 8.07 per cent.

As a result, wage growth declined by 0.34 percentage point in agriculture, 0.24 percentage point in industry and 0.11 percentage point in services over the month.

The BBS calculates the Consumer Price Index (CPI) using 383 items covering 749 varieties of goods and services in rural and urban markets. It collects price information from 154 markets across the country.