Iran braces for US strikes as diplomacy stalls
Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response in the event of renewed large-scale US military attacks, while continuing diplomatic efforts that Iranian officials privately believe are unlikely to produce an agreement.
Three senior Iranian officials and a person familiar with the discussions said senior commanders were reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries supporting American military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East.
The planning reflects growing concern within Iran’s leadership that any renewed US campaign should be met with a stronger response than previous attacks.
Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, senior officials and military commanders have been discussing the possible scope and timing of a response if Washington launches another attack, the sources said.
No final decision has been made, they added, but preparations have intensified as neither side appears willing to compromise.
The latest deliberations follow months of conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. An April 8 ceasefire ended a 40-day war, but sporadic hostilities have continued.
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran remained uncertain whether US President Donald Trump would order another major military campaign or opt for more limited strikes, including attacks on nuclear facilities.
“But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence,” Azizi said.
Allies told to prepare
Two of the Iranian officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to prepare to support Iran if the United States launches another large-scale attack.
The guidance was to prepare for a coordinated response stretching “from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East,” the officials said.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Tehran is also assessing the political costs of a prolonged conflict for Trump, including domestic opposition to the war and concerns over higher fuel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.
Diplomacy remains open
Despite preparing for a wider confrontation, Iran has continued to keep a channel open for negotiations.
At last week’s United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days.
Iranian officials said the proposal called for an end to the fighting, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds and a waiver of oil sanctions.
Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected the proposal. Iranian state media, however, reported that Washington delivered a response to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and that the response was being reviewed.
According to Iranian sources, Washington wants Iran’s nuclear programme included in negotiations. Tehran, however, insists that nuclear talks can begin only after seven conditions are met.
“Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement,” one Iranian official said.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the prospects for diplomacy remained limited.
“Iran cannot afford continuation of US blockades that could be a major game changer,” Vatanka said, adding that further escalation remained possible.
Economic and military pressure
The conflict has alternated between periods of relative calm and renewed strikes, killing thousands of civilians, weakening Iran’s military capabilities and placing further pressure on its already fragile economy.
Iran and its allies have sought to increase the costs for Washington by widening the conflict across the region, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to global energy markets.
Iran has launched drone and missile attacks against US allies in the Gulf, while its Houthi allies in Yemen have targeted Saudi interests. Houthi activity around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has created another pressure point along global energy routes and the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
An individual familiar with Iran’s decision-making process said the combination of military pressure and economic restrictions was becoming increasingly difficult for the country’s leadership to sustain.
Fears of renewed unrest
The economic strain has also heightened concerns within Iran’s leadership about domestic stability.
A former senior reformist Iranian official said the authorities feared a repeat of nationwide protests that erupted in January amid worsening economic conditions.
The protests were eventually suppressed by the authorities, with thousands reportedly killed, according to the official.
“Facing unrest at home – while the system is under US pressure and bombs – could pose a very serious challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling establishment,” he said.
As the anniversary of the January unrest approaches, Iranian authorities have tightened controls while seeking to maintain public mobilisation and encouraging supporters to attend nightly gatherings.
Rights groups have also reported an intensified crackdown on dissent during the conflict.
Amnesty International said in May that more than 6,000 people had been arrested since hostilities began, while a September report by UN investigators cited allegations of mass arrests, torture and increased use of the death penalty.
