Lesson from Nepal Tragedy India-only river talks may yield little for Bangladesh

The devastating flash floods in Nepal’s Rasuwa district along the Tibet border should serve as a warning to all South Asian countries sharing the Himalayan river systems.

For Bangladesh, in particular, the disaster is a powerful reminder that rivers do not recognise political boundaries and cannot be safely managed within national borders alone.

The sudden flooding of the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers demonstrated the enormous destructive force of Himalayan rivers.

A hydropower plant was virtually swept away, two others were severely damaged and 19 bridges were destroyed.

The precise causes of the unprecedented flooding remain uncertain, with landslides, ice and rock avalanches and seismic activity in Tibet among the possible explanations.

Whatever the cause, the devastation highlights the urgent need for greater regional preparedness, information-sharing and coordinated management of shared rivers.

The first and most urgent lesson is the need for systematic exchange of information on transboundary river flows and behaviour.

Downstream communities need timely information about upstream rainfall, river levels and sudden changes that may trigger floods.

Yet South Asian river diplomacy has traditionally concentrated on water-sharing, while information-sharing and joint disaster preparedness have received far less attention.

That must change.

Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable because it is a lower-riparian country. About 93 per cent of the catchment areas of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river systems lie outside its territory.

Bangladesh therefore has little control over the flows entering the country, although its agriculture, environment, navigation and millions of livelihoods depend on these rivers.

The country faces both dry-season water scarcity and excessive monsoon flows, alongside salinity intrusion, groundwater depletion, water-quality deterioration and environmental degradation.

The second lesson concerns infrastructure.

The destruction of hydropower facilities and bridges in Rasuwa should prompt all countries in the Himalayan river system to reconsider how and where infrastructure is constructed along vulnerable river courses.

Development projects that appear economically attractive can become extremely costly when they fail to account adequately for natural river behaviour.

Engineering interventions therefore require thorough and independent scrutiny.

Structural measures undertaken separately by individual countries cannot provide a lasting solution to basin management and may create serious consequences unless the common interests of co-riparian countries are taken into account.

Bangladesh’s experience with the Farakka Barrage provides another important lesson. Since its commissioning in 1975, dry-season water availability has remained a major concern.

Although Bangladesh and India signed the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty in 1996, disagreements over dry-season flows have continued, while the two countries have yet to reach a final agreement on the Teesta.

These longstanding disputes demonstrate the limitations of addressing interconnected river systems mainly through individual bilateral arrangements.

Bangladesh must therefore pursue a broader vision ofjoint river-basin management involving Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal.

The five countries share the wider GBM basin, and there is considerable scope for cooperation in water management, flood control, hydropower and dry-season flow augmentation.

Establishing an apex body involving the five countries for GBM basin management could provide a platform for coordinating watershed management, resolving conflicts and promoting the integrated use of shared water resources.

Such coordination need not attempt to resolve every contentious issue immediately.

Cooperation could begin in areas where the common interest is clear: real-time hydrological data exchange, flood forecasting, early-warning systems, joint scientific research, disaster response and assessment of major infrastructure projects.

Over time, the agenda could expand to water allocation, drought management, sediment control, ecosystem protection, navigation, irrigation, hydropower and common storage.

Research on transboundary water management can provide flood forecasting, warning systems, mathematical modelling and basin-wide planning as important components of effective river-basin management.

There is also a substantial economic opportunity. Multipurpose river-basin development could support irrigation, flood and drought management, erosion prevention, fisheries, navigation, industrial water supply and hydropower simultaneously.

Basin-wide planning would allow countries to share benefits while reducing the risk of projects in one country causing unintended damage in another.

The concept is not new. For years, there have been calls for stronger cooperation among Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal, including common storage, regional hydropower development and an institutional mechanism for basin-wide management.

The interests and concerns of lower-riparian countries should also have a meaningful place in decisions affecting the shared river systems.
What has been missing is sustained political commitment.

The Nepal disaster should provide fresh impetus for such cooperation.

Climate change, expanding infrastructure and growing demand for water are increasing the pressures on Himalayan river systems. No country can adequately manage these risks alone.

Bangladesh should therefore take the initiative in advocating a five-country Himalayan-GBM river management framework.

Existing bilateral mechanisms, including the Bangladesh-India Joint Rivers Commission, need not be abandoned; they can instead be complemented by a wider basin-level institution.

The principle should be simple: a shared river requires shared responsibility.

The devastation in Nepal is a reminder that an event upstream can quickly become a crisis downstream.

South Asia can continue managing its rivers through fragmented national policies and reactive diplomacy, or recognise rivers as interconnected natural systems and manage them accordingly.

For Bangladesh, the lesson is clear. Water diplomacy must move beyond bargaining over individual rivers towards cooperation across entire river basins.

The sooner the region makes that transition, the better prepared its people will be for the floods, droughts and water stresses ahead.