UNCERTAINTY FOR REPATRIATION OF FORCIBLY DISPLACED MN NATIONALS (FDMN): PATH TO PROGRESS

The term FDMN refers to ‘Forcibly Displaced MN Nationals,‘ predominantly comprising Rohingya Muslims who faced violent expulsion, seeking refuge in BD. These individuals, exceeding a million in number, reside in camps in BD due to relentless persecution violating all tiers of human rights.

Stripped of citizenship since 1982, Rohingya FDMNs endure systemic abuse, discrimination, and targeted violence. Waves of forced exodus occurred in 1978, 1991–1992, and notably in 2016, finding shelter in BD. In 2017, escalated violence by MN Forces and Buddhist radicals triggered the largest influx into BD.Presently, over 1.2 million FDMNs inhabit 34 BD camps, posing socio-economic and geopolitical challenges. Cox’s Bazar, famed for its natural beauty, faces environmental degradation due to prolonged refugees’ settlement. Repatriation remains a global priority, with BD and many nations advocating immediate and sustainable return.

FDMN in Bangladesh

When and how to repatriate the FDMN to MN? The question has been continually proved from different corners of conscious society. The prolonged stay of Rohingya FDMNs creates uncertainty, straining BD’s resources and international relations. BD must devise a clear plan to address repatriation ambiguity amidst geopolitical changes and global power dynamics. The coordinated efforts are crucial for their safe return and to alleviate the burdens faced by BD and the Rohingya community.Failure to do so will intensify complexity and criticality, impacting not only BD but also regional stability and global security. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned MN’s ethnic cleansing campaign, but Russia, Israel, India, Japan, and China hesitate to pressure MN. FDMNs demand citizenship, which conflicts with MN’s current law. The prolonged stay of FDMN in BD and the stalemate situation or uncertainty of repatriation dictate the needs to review BD’s stands and steps for repatriation. This write up is an endeavor undertaken to discuss the root causes of the Crisis, its impacts and impediments for repatriation with a view to recommending a practical and well-defined strategy for immediate FDMNrepatriation.

Root Causes of Rohingya Crisis

• Historical Context.MN’s history of colonial rule and the subsequent formation of the nation state have kindled to the Rohingya crisis. The British colonial administration favored certain ethnic groups, excluding the Rohingya, which fueled tensions between communities and laid the groundwork for present-day conflicts

• Denial of Citizenship.The Rohingya, a Muslim minority in MN’s Rakhine State, have long faced discrimination and denial of citizenship. Their official recognition as a citizen has been consistently denied by the Burmese govt, rendering them stateless and vulnerable. This lack of citizenship has deprived them of basic rights, including access to education, healthcare, and employment.
• Religious Discrimination and Ethno-nationalism.Religious tensions between the Buddhist majority and the Muslim Rohingya have played a significant role in fueling the crisis. The govt’s promotion of ethno-nationalist sentiments has painted the Rohingya as outsiders and a threat to national identity, exacerbating inter-communal tensions and laying the base for violence. Some Buddhist Monks harbor concerns about Islamophobia, fearing potential historical adversaries from the southern regions (Bengali Muslims) may lay claim to their lands, heightening anxieties within the community.
• Geopolitical Factors and International Response. The Rohingya crisis has also been influenced by geopolitical factors, with regional powers vying for influence in MN. The international response to the crisis has been criticized for its sluggishness and lack of decisive action to hold the MNgovt accountable for its human rights violations.

Large Scale Rohingya Influx inBD

• 1st Large Influx into Independent BD. In 1977, GoM launched ‘Operation Naga Min’ (Dragon King) which made the Rohingyas’ lives more worsen. More than 200,000 Rohingya people took shelter in BD. BD could ensure the repatriation of all the Rohingya exodus within one year.
• Rohingya Influx in 1991-92.In 1990, the name Arakan was changed into “Rakhine State,” and the junta started putting Buddhists in Northern Rakhine which was a Muslim area. In 1991 and 1992, nearly a quarter million were forced to leave their houses and belongings. BD could deport more than 2,000,000 Rohingyas to MN, though still 35,000 listed exodus are in UNHCR camps in Cox’s Bazar with families.
• Influx of Rohingya in 2009- 2016. There were several mentionable influxes of Rohingya into BD within 2007-2016. The first one occurred in 2007, when an estimated 20,000 Rohingya refugees fled from MN. There was another group influx in 2012 when around 75,000 fled to BD. A larger influx was in 2015-16, when 87,000 Rohingya has been displaced and fled to BD. They are not included in any list and few of them returned to their land at the own means.
• Largest Rohingya influx in2017. In the early August 2017, information of attacks by Rohingya insurgents on police posts in Rakhine state prompted GoM to launch the cleansing crackdown. The violent military crackdown in Rakhine State forced thousands of Rohingyas to flee for their lives. By early December 2017, over 700,000 of the Rohingya have crossed the border and arrived in Cox’s Bazar. During this operation, the MN troops killed more than 24,000 Rohingya and tortured a lot of others. The Rohingya Influx state in BD is given below:

Source: RRRC

Importance of FDMN Repatriation

The repatriation of Rohingya refugees is a complex and challenging issue. MN has not been found very positive to retake this state less people. There is no other country or countries in the world to host these million plus refugees. People around the world are convinced that the repatriation of the Rohingya to MN is the only feasible solution of the crisis. The other options,integration into BD or into third country is not at all practical in the reality. BD, a tiny nation with the highest population density has been accommodating the million plus Rohingya. The repatriation of Rohingya refugees to MN is crucial as, the prolonged presence of over a million FDMN has placed a significant strain on the country’s infrastructure, resources, and economy. The influx of refugees has exacerbated existing challenges, such as poverty, overcrowding, and environmental degradation. Additionally, the protracted refugee crisis has strained relations between BD and MN, hindering regional cooperation and stability. The FDMN with hatred in the heart and trauma in the mind is also real concern for the global security.

FDMN Demands vis-à-vis MN offers for Repatriation

The main challenge on the FDMN crisis is the citizenship of Rohingya people. The FDMN demanded nationality and direct repatriation to their villages instead of camps. GoM has also agreed to provide few facilities to the repatriated FDMNs. The FDMN demands and the agreed issues by GoM are tabled below:

The Uncertain Future of FDMN Repatriation

BD, earlier was quite successful, now faces stalled efforts amid Rohingya distrust in MN’s security promises and citizenship assurances. China’s mediation yielded limited progress. UNHCR and global organizations caution against returns, citing unfavorable MN conditions and Rohingya reluctance. Additionally, internal political unrest and geopolitical competition with MN escalate the already intricate repatriation landscape.

Uncertain Future for the Rohingya People

The repatriation of displaced populations to their country of origin is inherently complex, shaped by both socio-economic and geopolitical factors. In the current global context, marked by a shifting geopolitical order, the return of over a million Rohingya Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs) demands strong coordination and sustained engagement from the international community. Given Myanmar’s geopolitical significance—particularly that of Rakhine State—and the competing interests of major global actors, the issue cannot be resolved by Bangladesh or Myanmar alone.

Challenges and Concerns Due to Uncertainty of Repatriation

Rohingya repatriation uncertainty poses myriad challenges. This uncertainty generates humanitarian crises and logistical complexities, further prolonging the marginalized community’s plight. Additionally, a UNDP study highlights that to accommodate the Rohingya camps Total 4,818.1 acres of forest has been utilized. To do that, around 2,917.6 acres of reserved forest and 1,999.5 acres of project forest are to be cut down. The basic environment is highly affected by the large number of Rohingya people within a small area.

Loss of Hills and Forest Due to Refugee Camp

The uncertainty on FDMN repatriation has intensified geopolitical challenges regionally. It significantly impacts BD’s politics and demography, particularly in Cox’s Bazar, impeding the nation’s political objectives. This issue strains host countries’ resources, triggers global security worries, and risks unsettling peace in hilly regions like Bandarban within the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The FDMN influx threatens ecological balance, biodiversity, and long-term environmental stability. Moreover, the unresolved crisis strains relations among nations involved, fostering potential cross-border conflicts and radicalization. The concentration of Rohingya or FDMNs near the Bay of Bengal coast heightens concerns about radicalization and potential refugee influxes. Additionally, this situation strains regional stability, elevates international tensions, and fosters opportunities for transnational crime and extremist activities.

MN Response on FDMN Repatriation

MN’s military regime or GoM holds a convoluted stance on repatriating over a million FDMNs from BD. Officially labeling Rohingyas as “Bengalis” and considering them illegal immigrants, MN denies recognition of FDMNs as Rohingya or citizen of MN. Despite global condemnation post-2017 exodus, MN accused Rohingyas of attacking law enforcement, disavowing involvement in violence. Aung San Suu Kyi, MN’s Sate Council leader, refuted genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice in December 2019. Post the 2021 coup, General Min Aung Hlaing initially hinted at repatriating Rohingya to Rakhine state, later deeming it impossible under MN’s laws. This uncertainty seemingly bolstered Hlaing’s junta leadership. MN verified only 82,058 identities (9.9%) out of BD’s list of 829,036 FDMNs, raising concerns about repatriation data accuracy.

MN faces criticisms for failing to ensure safe and respectful Rohingya returns. Issues regarding security, citizenship, and basic rights leading to the conflict remain unaddressed. MN has been accused of denying justice to victims and failing to conduct impartial investigations into atrocities. The present citizenship law in MN presents challenges for Rohingya, requiring proof of ancestral residence before 1823 for full citizenship. The impasse persists, hindering a resolution for the safe and dignified return of Rohingyas to MN.

Key Impediments from MN

• Mindset of TATMADAW and MN. Post the 2021 coup, the MN military, or Tatmadaw, initially hinted at Rohingya repatriation from BD. However, as Tatmadaw strengthened its grip, their position notably changed. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing retracted the previous suggestion, stressing Rohingya compliance with MN’s laws for repatriation and expressing uncertainty about refugee acceptance outside MN’s legal framework. Notably, Tatmadaw considers Rohingyas as refugees in MN and hasn’t forcibly expelled them to facilitate their return.
• Denial of Citizenship for Rohingya Community. Citizenship poses a major obstacle to Rohingya repatriation. The absence of citizenship exacerbates persecution and reluctance to return to Rakhine, as Rohingyas lack rights. Despite MN’s promise of National Verification Cards, the Rohingyas refuse relocation without citizenship.
• Political Instability in MN. Political instability and prolonged military rule in MN significantly hinder Rohingya repatriation. The 2021 coup, removing the elected govt of Aung San Suu Kyi, breeds uncertainty and fear, impeding Rohingya return. The coup disbanded the National Reconciliation and Peace Centre, disrupting repatriation coordination. MN’s history of military dominance fosters a culture of military impunity, accused of severe rights abuses against the Rohingya.
• Complexity of Global Response. The repatriation of Rohingya refugees to MN is hampered by complex power dynamics among key global actors. MN’s military govt, accused of genocide against the Rohingya, lacks the will or capacity to create conditions conducive to safe and dignified returns. The role of USA and Western Allies are countered by China and Russia. UNHCR and Western Allies are not supporting China mediated repatriation project. Global body, while advocating for repatriation, have failed to exert sufficient pressure on MN due to the role of China, Russia, Japan and India in favor of MN. The unhealthy competing interests have hindered a coordinated approach for repatriation. These power dynamics have created an impasse, leaving the Rohingya refugees trapped in limbo with uncertain prospects for a safe return home.

Recommendations

• BD should go ahead with Top Level Diplomatic Efforts while continuing to strengthening military capability to repatriate all the Rohingyas to MN by next 6 years involving all the key actors. The Key Actions include:
• A Crisis Management team led by the HPM to evaluate the situation and updates.
• A high-level BD delegation to MN, China, IN, and other concerned countries to highlight future catastrophe threats of ongoing stalemates.
• Support for or neutral stance from IN, China, USA, and ASEAN is to be ensured.
• A Rohingya summit involving the key leaders of OIC and reps from key actors.
• China, USA, and other key actors are to be apprised about imminent threats from persecuted refugees in the region.
• Continuous diplomatic efforts.
• Use smart diplomacy with China and IN, emphasizing the possible threats to their investments without peace and stability.
• Taking MN in confidence with cordial diplomatic relation and make her understood the benefits and outcomes of stable and secured Rakhine state and the region.
• To continue efforts and initiatives for peace and stability, despite MN’s ignorance, lack of interest, disregard, or even opposition.

Concluding Remarks
Rohingya repatriation presents complex challenges for BD and the wider region. Since 2017, BD has persistently sought solutions and urged the global community to pressure MN to halt violence against the Rohingya, fostering conditions for their secure return. BD’s initiatives and international collaboration regarding FDMN Repatriation are crucial to this pressing humanitarian crisis. Challenges persist due to MN’s reluctance to ensure safe returns, political uncertainties, and ongoing human rights violations against Rohingya. BD continues to engage global bodies, seeking support and urging MN to address citizenship rights and Rohingya identity denial. Although the USA and UN rejection of China-mediated repatriation initiatives poses concerns, BD’s efforts persist. Conversely, MN’s slow response, lack of progress in verification, citizenship denial, and failure to integrate returnees raise international skepticism and concern regarding MN’s commitment to facilitating a safe and voluntary repatriation.

The FDMN crisis stems from MN, necessitating solutions within MN. The uncertainty on FDMN repatriation spans economic, social, environmental, diplomatic, security, and humanitarian dimensions. Resolving the Rohingya crisis and facilitating safe return of FDMN demand collaborative efforts involving BD, MN, and global stakeholders. Immediate challenges and root causes must be addressed for a sustainable solution prioritizing refugees’ right, host country concerns, and regional stability. A well-coordinated strategy among BD, MN, and the international community holds significant potential to address these pressing challenges and foster stability and prosperity in the region.

(Writer: PhD Fellow on Rohingya Repatriation: Multilateral Challenges for BD, MN and International Community)