BBS’s Exaggerated Data on GDP Hinders the Government’s Proper Policymaking

BBS’s (Bangladesh Statistical Bureau’s) statistical errors, confusion and distrust of its data are not new. This crisis has always been a major structural obstacle in the country’s financial management.

Despite realising the issue, no initiative has been taken at the policymaking level to reform the agency.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave Bangladesh’s GDP statistics a ‘C’ rating in January this year, which is the organisation’s second lowest grade.

According to the IMF’s observations, the GDP calculation method in Bangladesh is outdated, the ‘Supply and Use Table’ is not updated, and there is an average delay of eight months in publishing annual GDP data. On the other hand, an investigation by the White Paper Committee formed during the interim government revealed that annual GDP growth was overstated by an average of about 2.8 percentage points between 2009 and 2019.

The World Bank’s 2022 report also came to the same conclusion, claiming 7 percent growth as official figures, but the actual rate was 4.2 percent.

An analysis of energy consumption by City Bank Capital Resources showed that Bangladesh’s real GDP was about $300 billion in the 2023-24 fiscal years. The ‘User Satisfaction Survey 2024’ conducted by BBS presents an even more embarrassing picture.

Realizing this crisis of BBS in the post-24 uprising, the interim government talked about statistical reforms. But in the end, no visible steps were taken to reform.

If the BBS data is unreliable, every policy decision of the government will be based on a false foundation. This will make it difficult for the government to fulfill its promises.

If the poverty rate, per capita income, and income inequality data are shown to be better than reality, the list of beneficiaries will be smaller. The real poor will be outside the protection zone.

The same problem arises in employment statistics. If industrial growth is shown to be high, the severity of the employment deficit escapes the attention of the government.

This problem is also harmful in relations with international lenders. The terms of IMF loan programs are linked to the GDP ratio. If the size of GDP is exaggerated, then there is an opportunity to borrow more, but on the other hand, the assessment of whether the conditions for reforms are being met is also incorrect.

It is time to break away from the past practice of politicians using statistics for their own benefit. The exaggerated data of BBS can also create challenges for that programme in many cases.

Realizing this, institutions that provide information support for financial management, including BBS, must be quickly reformed.