Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains

After slowing Russia’s rate of advance over the past several months, Ukraine may have tipped the scales in April and recaptured more of its land than it lost, according to an analysis of battlefield positions.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said it had observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres (45 square miles) during the month.

That figure counted only territory firmly held by each side, not what it called “grey zones”, where both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers held positions.

“Russian forces have been using infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes,” the ISW said. “Russian forces, however, do not control these infiltration areas.”

The ISW has observed a progressive slowing of the Russian rate of advance by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months.

It found that Russian forces seized an average of 2.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a day in the first third of 2026, compared with an average of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) in the same period in 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, which contains a “fortress belt” of heavily fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka. Russian assaults here “noticeably increased” in April, said Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii.

Moscow has claimed to be gradually overrunning Konstiantynivka, but the ISW observed that it had “infiltrated in 10.14 percent of Kostiantynivka and advanced in only 0.7 percent of its eastern outskirts”.

Ukraine also said Russia suffered higher casualties than its rate of recruitment could replenish for the fifth month running.

“In April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded,” said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, adding that Russia was “gradually drowning in losses”.

In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents reporting that 62 percent of casualties were deaths – a higher rate than Ukraine or anyone else had previously assumed.

It is not clear when Ukrainian forces reached that level of lethality, but it seems to be a recent development. Fedorov said on May 6 that last year “Russia was losing about 14,000 soldiers per month,” meaning deaths, since total casualties averaged 34,833.

That would suggest recent advances in Ukrainian tactics.
Zelenskyy recently said Ukraine aimed to double down on mid-range attacks in the Russian rear, striking supplies before they can be brought to bear on the battlefield.

“In April, the number of strikes over 20km (12 miles) was twice as high as in March, and four times as high as in February,” said Fedorov.

The revenue war Ukraine struck several refineries and oil facilities during the past week as part of a strategy of depriving Russia of export revenue.

It struck the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on May 1, and the Perm refinery 1,000km (620 miles) inside Russia on the same night.

On May 2, Ukraine used surface drones to raid two Russian oil tankers outside the offloading port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

On the same night, Zelenskyy said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) struck a missile carrier, a patrol boat and a tanker in the port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, also damaging the oil terminal.