War against Iran and Bangladesh’s economy

The ongoing war in the Middle East is not ending as quickly as many had hoped.

Many experts believe that there is a strong likelihood of the conflict becoming prolonged.

The possibility of the war expanding in scope and intensity also cannot be ruled out.

In this context, the conflict has become not only a regional issue but a serious concern for the global economy as well.

Although the battlefield may seem far from Bangladesh, its negative impacts are likely to be clearly reflected in the country’s economy and the daily lives of its people.

In this reality, timely preparation and making strategic decision have become the most important issue.

Bangladesh’s energy security is largely dependent on the Middle East. The country imports most of its fuel from nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.

Therefore, if the war becomes prolonged and widespread, an increase in global energy prices will be inevitable.

This will directly affect electricity generation, industries, and the transport sector, potentially leading to further inflationary pressure.

Food security is equally at risk. Disruptions in global supply chains due to war and sanctions could drive up the prices of essential commodities such as wheat, edible oil, and fertilizers.

At a time when people are already struggling with high inflation, this would further intensify the burden.

Particularly, the cost of living for low- and middle-income groups could become unbearable.

Remittances are one of the key pillars of Bangladesh’s economy. The income and employment of millions of Bangladeshi workers in Middle Eastern countries may be threatened by the conflict.

As a result, foreign currency reserves could come under pressure. At the same time, rising import costs would further weaken the balance of payments.

Uncertainty is also increasing in foreign trade and the transport sector. Rising tensions in areas such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are likely to increase shipping and insurance costs.

This may reduce the competitiveness of Bangladesh’s export products, thereby hindering economic growth.

In this situation, maintaining diplomatic balance will be a major challenge for Bangladesh.

While the conflict initially appeared to involve Iran, Israel, and the United States, more countries are gradually becoming directly or indirectly involved.

In such a complex geopolitical environment, Bangladesh must pursue a prudent foreign policy that safeguards its economic interests.

At the same time, it should explore alternative sources for energy and food imports and reduce risks through long-term agreements.

This crisis cannot be viewed merely as a foreign issue. Rather, it has exposed Bangladesh’s structural weaknesses and overdependence.

Diversifying energy sources, achieving food self-sufficiency, expanding export sectors, preventing waste in all areas, encouraging citizens to adopt frugal lifestyles, discouraging panic hoarding of essential goods, suspending non-essential government projects, and developing skilled human resources-these measures can strengthen the country’s ability to face upcoming challenges.

This war may create a critical situation for Bangladesh. However, with unwavering faith in Almighty Allah, and by making decisions with patience, wisdom, and prudence, we can largely mitigate its adverse impacts.

May Allah, in His mercy, protect Bangladesh and the entire world from all kinds of calamities and grant peace everywhere.

(The writer is an Islamic economist, researcher & political analyst).