$10 oil price rise could add $80m to monthly bill
Business Desk :
Bangladesh’s monthly import bill could rise by up to $80 million for every $10 increase in oil prices, as escalating conflict in the Middle East drives up global energy prices, according to the report prepared by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.
The warning came on Wednesday as oil prices rose about 1 percent following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have disrupted supplies in the region.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime gateway to the Persian Gulf. Around one-fifth of global oil exports pass through this route.
Brent crude climbed $1.1, or 1.4 percent, to $82.52 a barrel by 1143 GMT, after closing on Tuesday at its highest level since January 2025, Reuters reported.
The BRAC EPL report cited analyst warnings that a prolonged blockade could push prices well beyond $100 a barrel if the escalation continues into a second week.
Bangladesh bought crude at an average of $72 a barrel in 2025, according to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC).
Amid rising concern, the government held an emergency meeting yesterday. Officials discussed whether energy supplies from alternative sources could be secured in time if the disruption in the Gulf continues.
The report said war risk premiums have surged. Insurance costs for vessels operating in the Gulf have risen to 1 percent of ship value, up from 0.2 percent before the strikes. That has added hundreds of thousands of dollars to individual voyages.
Major insurers have begun cancelling war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf. About 150 tankers have dropped anchor, effectively stalling 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments.
“Bangladesh’s immediate exposure is the higher delivered cost of crude and refined products, amplified by freight and insurance premiums,” the report said, adding that disruption in the Gulf now poses a direct operational risk for the country.
It added that contingency plans are under discussion, including prioritising gas for fertiliser and power generation while raising coal-based output to offset the “Hormuz risk”.
Bangladesh spends roughly $1 billion per year to import more than 60 lakh tonnes of petroleum and relies heavily on the Hormuz route.
It sources most petroleum from the Middle East, and more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passed through this chokepoint.
The country meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 mmcfd, through imported LNG as domestic output continues to fall short.
On March 2, Oxford Economics projected that LNG prices could rise 30 percent to an average of about $14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between April and June, up from $9 to $10 at present.
Against the backdrop, state-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd has floated tenders to purchase two LNG cargoes from the spot market for March 15-16 and March 18-19 deliveries, according to people familiar with the matter.
