Inflation, high rates and war crimp global trade: WTO

AFP, Geneva :
Global trade growth will be sharply lower than forecast this year as stubborn inflation, high interest rates and the war in Ukraine pressure economies around the globe, the World Trade Organization said Thursday.

Strains in China’s vast property market also prompted the WTO to cut its trade growth forecast to just 0.8 percent this year, less than half the increase it had previously projected.

“The projected slowdown in trade for 2023 is cause for concern, because of the adverse implications for the living standards of people around the world,” said the WTO director-general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

The volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.8 percent this year, “less than half the 1.7 percent increase forecasted in April”, the WTO said in its revised global trade projections.

“The 3.3 percent growth projected for 2024 remains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate” of 3.2 percent, it said.

The WTO expects real world GDP to increase by 2.6 percent at market exchange rates this year, and by 2.5 percent in 2024.