It’s a big moment for Bangladesh; and US-Bangladesh relations: Michael Kugelman

UNB :
Director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. Michael Kugelman has said it may be more difficult for the US to make a “conclusive judgment” on the upcoming national election results in Bangladesh if opposition BNP boycotts it.

“Because if the Awami League is running against itself, if it gets 98% of the vote, you can’t say that those votes were taken away from the BNP.

So it’s all very unsettled,” he told UNB in an interview, noting that the Biden administration wants a free and fair election in Bangladesh and at the end of the day, the US wants to have a good relationship with Bangladesh.

The government of Bangladesh keeps reiterating that it is committed to holding a “free, fair and peaceful” election in the country.

The next national election is likely to be held in December this year or January next.

Highlighting another possible scenario, Kugelman said if the election happens and the US concludes that it is a rigged election instead of free and fair, he would not be surprised if that prompts the US government to conduct a review of its future relations with Bangladesh.

“I think that one of the reasons why the Biden administration has been putting so much pressure on Dhaka, announcing this visa policy, doing the sanctions on Rab, I think the idea is to impress upon the ruling party, the imperative of doing whatever is possible to ensure a free and fair election so that the administration doesn’t have to make the decision about what the future of the relationship should look like,” said the South Asian expert.

Kugelman who is now in Dhaka on his first tour said the US administration is signaling to Dhaka that it does not want to consider such options of less engagement.

“We can’t rule out a lessening and reduction of ties. I think this wouldn’t necessarily happen. But I think it’s a possibility.”

He said though he does not really have a sense as to what is going on; there is a very good chance that the election result will be contested.

Asked about the political scenario ahead of the elections, Kugelman, also a writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief, said it is really very unsettled and an uncertain moment because there is a lot of question marks about the outcome of the election, to an extent whether the opposition will participate or whether it will boycott, what else could happen in the lead up to the election.

“As an outside observer of Bangladesh, I see here playing out something that really is playing out in a lot of countries around the world, including in the United States, quite frankly, and that is a very polarized politics,” he said.

For him, Kugelman said, the biggest question is – Will the opposition boycott or not? Because that would appear to change the entire complexion of the election if they are not in it,” he said, adding that it is a big moment for Bangladesh and a big moment for the US-Bangladesh relations.

He thinks the outcome of the election and how it is perceived and construed could have significant implications for the US-Bangladesh relations.

Asked about public perception that the US is favoring the BNP, Kugelman said, “I don’t want to over-generalize public opinion in Bangladesh. But what I’ll say is that the Biden administration is not favoring the BNP.”

What they are seeing is that the Biden administration is trying to make Bangladesh a test case for its values-based foreign policy.

“In other words, it’s very robustly pursuing this policy of promoting democracy and human rights in Bangladesh.

It’s a selective policy that does not apply in many other countries, including Pakistan, as well as India,” Kugelman said.

“I think it’s more of the issue of the policies and concerns about rights and democracy, more so than who’s in power and who’s in the opposition,” he added.