Power dominance and politics of intolerance

Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :

Authoritarian and confrontational politics have bred political instability and uncertainty in Bangladesh since it gained Independence. Although elections of one kind or the other have been held on a regular basis, they have neither solved the fundamental political problems (that is, the prevalence of authoritarian and agitation politics) nor brought durable political stability. A volatile political atmosphere prevails in the country.
In the absence of checks and balances in the political system, whoever was in power created an elaborate state patronage system and monopolized political power. Along with politicians and their cronies, the major beneficiaries of the patrimonial political system were the civil bureaucracy and the military. Consequently, both of them have become politicized and interfered in the political affairs of the state. In the end, politics has become an attractive business proposition for different interest groups. Given that economic stakes were high, those who lost political power either through elections or extra-constitutional means reacted violently and engaged in agitation politics to oust those who had replaced them.
Today, optimism has given way to widespread pessimism. Across the region, democracy’s fortunes have suffered significant setbacks. In 2021, both Freedom House and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute downgraded the quality of India’s democracy. While the Pakistani state has achieved success in reducing extremist violence, the military continues to dominate key aspects of domestic and foreign policy. Bangladesh is moving further toward consolidated autocracy, with the ruling party cracking down on dissent and political opposition.
India surrounds Bangladesh on three sides. So inevitably, Bangladesh cannot avoid India in its foreign policy decisions. Firstly, India wants to extend its grip on the South Asian region. To that end, it wants to contain China’s influence in the south Asian region. Secondly, India is Bangladesh’s closest neighbor, and Bangladesh relies on India for security, trade and several bilateral co-operations.
Similarly, Bangladesh relies on China for trading partnerships. China is considered by many an “all-weather friend” to Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh cannot avoid China in the global political arena either, as many vital interests lie with it. For example, Bangladesh benefits from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China is now Bangladesh’s top trading partner, direct foreign investor, trade importer and military hardware supplier. In 2016, after Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh, he invested $38 billion. This event made India fearful of being left behind. As a result, India declared a $5 billion line of credit for Bangladesh, the biggest amount ever lent by India to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has to maintain its political and economic links with India and China to reap the benefits from both countries. In this case, the hedging strategy is indispensable to cooperating with both countries.
In Bangladesh, as in other less developed and developing societies, corruption appears to be encouraged and strengthened by weak and often dysfunctional political institutions leading to inadequate governance. In post liberation Bangladesh, political institutions did not seem to strengthen the political culture of democracy, especially parliamentary democracy. Populist as well as civilianized military rule could not adequately promote and nurture participatory political system. Lip service continued to be paid to democratic principles of participation, transparency and accountability. In all situations, even a healthier one, political leaders and parties need money for the parties ‘political programs and elections campaign in countries such as Bangladesh their need for enormous funds are increased manifold on account of monetization and criminalization of politics in recent decades. Polities and business have become increasingly intertwined.
Professor Ali Riaz said to focus on four issues to explain the future course of politics in Bangladesh. First is the current regime, which he has described as a hybrid regime, characterized by the presence of ostensibly democratic elements as well as strong authoritarian tendencies and reliance on the use of force to govern. This type of governance is not static as it has been seen elsewhere in the world. Those areas tend to have more centralization of power and experience more authoritarian systems. It needs to be considered for Bangladesh as well. Legitimacy of this type of regime is created through the planned selection of rulers which they consider as a kind of formality. In that regard, the upcoming elections of Bangladesh are of special importance.
Secondly, a new class structure has emerged in Bangladeshi society and a new rich class has developed. There is a lack of aspiration for accountability and participatory systems among these classes, which have developed under the patronage of the state and the patronage of the ruling elite, which is influencing politics. It is not a good sign for future Bangladesh. But it is very natural that anger is building among the underprivileged in the middle class.
Thirdly, the influence of conservative Islamists has already increased in the politics of Bangladesh. As the field of participatory politics becomes more limited in the future, the influence and power of these forces will increase. It is this force that will benefit most if some alternative to participatory free elections is attempted.
Fourthly, India has almost assumed the role of the decider in the politics of Bangladesh, which has been accepted by virtually all major parties. Ultimately, it can be assumed that India’s experience with other South Asian countries may not be pleasant. In the long run, India’s influence in Bangladesh will help her getting the taste of warm bilateral relation and some other benefits. However, prolonged authoritarian, dominating practice and making discrimination in society should not be taken care of by state.

(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar & VDP).