Ukraine War: Peace should be the rational goal
M. Kabir Hassan PhD and José Antonio Pérez Amuedo :
After World War II, Europe was divided into two parts: the Western (capitalist) countries and the Eastern (communist) ones. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, although with its dissolution, its attempts to get closer to the West became evident. It was not until 2014 when this conflict began to take shape. At that time, Ukraine was headed by Viktor Yanukovych, whose ideas were in line with those of Russia. As a result, the Ukrainian people initiated several protests that eventually led to the removal of their president, with the support of the West. Consequently, Russia decided to invade the Ukrainian territory of the Crimean Peninsula, which subsequently became part of the country controlled by Putin. In addition, he initiated a campaign of support, which continues today, for Ukrainian separatists in a border area with Russia called the Donbas.
When Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he claimed that Russia’s neighbor should be demilitarized and de-Nazified, even though at that time, the president of Ukraine was Volodymyr Zelensky, who is of Jewish descent.
The first and most significant consequence of this war is leaving behind is the number of losses. As of April 2023, there have been recorded up to 18,280 casualties: 6,596 killed and 11,684 injured in territory controlled by Ukraine’s government under attack by Russian forces, and 4,454 casualties in Ukrainian territory occupied by the Russians, with 1,894 killed and 2,560 injured. And even though Moscow has denied targeting civilians since the start of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the reality is that their air attacks have been hitting not only military bases but hospitals, residential buildings, schools, and other civilian infrastructure, resulting in the death of many innocent and vulnerable civilians.
The second phenomenon we are experiencing as an indirect consequence of the war is the increase in food prices or inflation. Russia is the 11th largest economy and a significant producer of commodities such as gas, oil, industrial metals, wheat, and potash. Due to the invasion of Ukraine and the restrictions imposed on Russia, the rest of the world has witnessed an uncontrolled surge in gas prices, which is a critical factor contributing to inflation. Currently, goods are produced and manufactured in countries with low labor costs such as China, India, and Vietnam, and then transported and distributed worldwide. However, the rise in gas prices has resulted in increased transportation costs, compelling companies to raise their prices to maintain profit margins, exacerbating inflation even further.
A third consequence of Russia’s attempt to take over Ukraine is that it may inspire other nations to do the same. China has stated numerous times that they view Taiwan as a rogue province that will eventually be reunified with the mainland, based on their historical unification. If Russia successfully annexes Ukraine, and the rest of the world remains uninvolved, China may perceive this as an opportune moment to pursue a similar course of action with Taiwan. Such a scenario could trigger a domino effect, involving countries that share similar beliefs as these two nations.
The fourth consequence of this event, and perhaps the one that scares people the most, is the potential initiation of an international conflict that could lead to World War III. Since day one of the war, Putin warned that if any of the NATO countries decided to position themselves actively or militarily on the side of Ukraine, he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons, which could have devastating consequences. Despite Putin’s threats, many countries have been providing Ukraine with humanitarian and financial support, especially the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, among others.
There are many reasons why other countries, especially those in NATO, desire for this war to come to an end. Primarily, these countries advocate for global stability, but there is also a concern for price stability. Currently, with the ongoing conflict, these countries are facing difficulties that they likely would not have to face if the conflict were resolved.
Jeffrey D. Sachs, who remembers former US President John F. Kennedy, proposed several solutions for this war to come to an end, with which we agree. Recognizing the importance of peace would be one of them, as peace is the rational goal for both sides. Additionally, another solution should involve avoiding blaming only one side. Instead, both sides should reexamine their actions and acknowledge their share of guilt.
Another solution would be to overcome pessimism and promote understanding, where direct communication is key to avoid misunderstandings and, therefore, dangerous actions. The fourth and arguably the most crucial solution is to pursue mutually beneficial agreements. For this to succeed, it is important that both parties accept and uphold treaty obligations that serve their own interests.
Finally, there should be a willingness to negotiate and address concerns since only through this can they find a resolution. Sometimes, understanding the perspective of the adversary is challenging, but as John F. Kennedy explained in his Peace Speech, this is crucial for the pursuit of peace.
(M. Kabir Hassan is a Professor of Finance at the University of New Orleans, USA and José Antonio Pérez Amuedo is a PhD student at the same university).
