Winter preparation to tackle Covid 2nd wave still murky

THE latest IEDCR research showed that the prevalence of antibody against Covid-19 in most Dhaka slum residents indicates that the low-income communities were widely infected and then recovered. But they mostly remained outside the purview of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests. The survey-based on randomly selected 125 individuals from eight slums revealed that 74 per cent of the slum population had developed antibodies against the virus. PCR tests in the slum people had been minimal, that is why the number of reported cases among them was meager. Around 45 per cent of 692 individuals outside slums were also found to have antibodies. Though the sample was too small, the slum data are not representative of the whole populace.
The IEDCR’s 95 days cumulative data points to a gradual decline in infections and a growth in people’s immunity as bodies generate antibodies against the virus. As people recover, the infection rate comes down, but the antibody rate goes up. Of the PCR tested 63,272 individuals who needed a Covid-19 report before flying abroad from 20 July to 12 October, only 951 tested positive. In this backdrop, antibody tests could help understand the trend of virus infection and antibody development. Meanwhile, the antibody rate in slums indicates herd immunity. In that case, these people are highly unlikely to suffer from a second wave of infection.
 Many European country governments are imposing lockdown amid the surge of infection rate. The Czech Republic has shut schools and bars, Dutch cafes and restaurants are closing, and France could impose curfews, as European governments fight to keep the second wave of Covid-19 infections under control. Over the next months, if the infection rate in Dhaka, except for slums, reaches over 70 per cent, they will also become immune to the virus. Experts warned people might suffer in the upcoming winter because, generally, a human’s respiratory tract system’s resistance capacity falters at that time. The government needs to show steps visible to gain people’s confidence about its capacity to provide healthcare and pandemic impact in the economy.