Climate change will lead to natural disaster

The South Asian Nations would face serious economic losses due to the adverse impact of climate change, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) at a function in the city on Tuesday.
“Of the countries, Bangladesh economy would suffer an annual loss of up to 9.0 per cent of its GDP by the end of this century,” added the report titled “Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia.”
The report was released at a programme held at Sonargaon Hotel with Environment and Forests Minister Anwar Hossain Manju attending it as the chief guest, while ADB’s vice-president for Knowledge Management Sustainable Development Bindu Lohani was the special guest.
There were also a presentation of the key findings of the report and panel discussions on the impact of the climate change on Bangladesh’s economy. The report predicts that the six South Asian countries — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka — will see an average economic loss of around 1.8 per cent of their collective annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 and it will rise sharply to 8.8 per cent by 2100 if the world continues on its current fossil-fuel intensive path.
It also says that the low-lying areas of Bangladesh are at the frontline of “at- risk countries” from climate change and without changes to current global behaviour, the country would see annual economic costs equivalent to 2 per cent of its GDP by 2050, widening to 9.4 per cent by 2100. But if global mitigation actions are successfully implemented, those losses could be limited to just over 2 per cent by 2100.
In Bangladesh, where agriculture employs nearly half the labour force, a rise in extreme floods, cyclones and droughts, heat stress, and shorter growing seasons could slash yields of rice, wheat, and potato by over two thirds of current levels in some cases threatening food security.
A coastal zone of more than 47,000 square kilometers, providing homes and sustenance to a fast-growing population of over 36 million, will face more storm surges and a projected sea level rise, which will worsen erosion and soil salinity and engulf increasingly large chunks of productive and densely populated areas of land.
The division with the largest area permanently affected by a 1-meter sea level rise will be Khulna, while Dhaka could see up to 14 per cent of its territory temporarily inundated, and its large population facing the greatest risks by the end of the century. More extreme weather events will also damage forests, wetlands, and the world’s largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, which provides income and nutrition to millions of people and a cushion against rural poverty.
The costs of adapting to climate change in South Asia will depend largely on how the global community tackles the issue, the report says, noting that if the world continues on its current path, South Asia will need to spend at least US$73 billion, or an average of 0.86 per cent of its GDP, every year between now and 2100 to adapt to the negative impacts.
On the other hand, if countries act together to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2.5oC, the cost of the region shielding itself from the worst of the impacts would be nearly halved to around US$40.6 billion, or 0.48 per cent of GDP.
The report does not provide detailed adaptation cost projections on a country or sector basis, although in the energy sector it notes that a rising gap between demand and supply could see Bangladesh face an annual adaptation bill of over $89 million in the 2030s, rising to over $363 million in the 2050s.
The report also details adaptive measures that the country could take to protect its sensitive agriculture sector, including the introduction of drought, flood and saline-tolerant crops, crop and aquaculture diversification, more capture and use of surface water for irrigation, more flood resistant infrastructure for riverbanks, raised earth beds for seasonal vegetable cultivation, and the adoption of alternative livelihood options, including community-based fisheries and duck rearing.