Inactiveness of regional superpowers and Myanmar military’s tricky game

THE UN Fact Finding Mission has found that Myanmar military had planned the Rohingya genocide long before the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacked the country’s security personnel, a justification put forward by Myanmar for the violent crackdown on the ethnic minority. The UN said Myanmar military’s “clearance operations” did not occur in a vacuum; they were “foreseeable and planned”.
The Myanmar government, including its de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, had repeatedly said that ARSA’s attack forced the army to launch the crackdown. What can we expect from a country when it’s Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing defended clearing Rohingya villages as an essential step in rooting out a band of “militants.” According to the Wall Street Journal General Hlaing described the crackdown against the Rohingya last year as “unfinished business” dating back to World War II.
General Hlaing spent most of his army career fighting rebels on Myanmar’s eastern border in conflicts and was notorious enough for the abuse of ethnic minorities — as recently as 2009 he sent 30000 refugees to China. The C-in-C holds the keys to just three ministries – defense, border affairs and home affairs – but their reach is pervasive. While the civilian administration can enact legislation, the C-in-C exercises complete authority over the enforcement, from the police to the border guards.
Min Aung has correctly calculated that the world is least bothered about the Rohingyas. As long as the regional heavyweights like China and India don’t do anything he has no worries. While China calls for bilateral negotiations to resolve the issue can it really work? Suu Kyi had the audacity to blame Bangladesh for the slow tide of repatriations when it is Myanmar itself which has insisted that all returnees should have ID cards.
It does not look like the Rohingyas are going back anytime soon –if at all. Gen Aung has played a game which he can’t lose.