Data mismatch exposes government’s gray propaganda on steady economic growth

THE estimated GDP growth of 7.65 percent in the outgoing 2018 financial year is mired in controversy as the government growth rate claim does not match economic indicators in Bangladesh. While private investment grew very marginally, job creation in industrial sector remains nominal and real labour income declined in the fiscal, due to which such higher growth rate is not possible. Economists said, reported by news media, that growth in exports and remittance earnings is not consistent with the claim of a higher rate of growth while the banking sector continued to suffer from increasing non-performing loans and scams in the year. They questioned what types of development have been achieved and stated that the calculation was erroneous.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country’s economic growth is expected to be 7.65 percent in FY 2018 following an increase in growth in agriculture, manufacturing, power, construction, wholesale and retail trade, public administration and defense. The bureau usually finalizes the calculation of the gross domestic products in October every year and this is the fourth time in a row the GDP growth is claimed to have exceeded the 7 percent mark.
It seems that the economy would not grow by 7.65 percent if data on investment, credit growth, job creation, industrial productivity and other indicators for the first six months is taken into consideration. Public investment usually takes time to bring benefit to the economy. The World Bank in its Bangladesh Development Update stated that growth in employment generation was 2.2 percent; nominal labor income growth was 2.7 percent and slower remittances than 2016 — all of which did not support the BBS estimation.
On the contrary, the WB projection was 6.5 percent to 6.6 percent. Similarly, CPD said the claimed 13.18 and 11.99 percent growth in manufacturing and industrial sectors respectively was not supported by data on job creation and investment.
We must say that the BBS data does not reflect the country’s macro economic indicators. Such gray information may be helpful to political propagandists but is unfortunately not a real reflection of the economy. The Chinese economy shows only 6.7 percent GDP growth; our estimation of 7.65 percent GDP growth is nothing but a mockery.