Bangladesh’s energy crisis: Is the five-point plan enough?

Prime Minister TariqueRahman’s five-point energy plan comes at a critical time for Bangladesh. Domestic gas production has fallen sharply while demand keeps rising, leaving industries, power plants, and fertiliser factories struggling with shortages.

The plan’s focus on increasing domestic gas production, strengthening BAPEX, developing new wells, and accelerating offshore and onshore exploration is therefore welcome.

But the plan leaves a crucial question unanswered: how will Bangladesh get through the immediate shortage? Most of the proposed measures will take years to deliver results, while industries and consumers are facing the crisis today.

The answer cannot simply be to produce more gas or import more LNG.

Bangladesh must also make better use of the energy it already has – by cutting transmission and distribution losses, improving industrial energy efficiency, conducting regular energy audits, managing demand, and ensuring transparent gas allocation during shortages.

The plan also raises questions about the country’s continued dependence on LNG and the proposed role of coal, while giving relatively little attention to renewable energy and energy efficiency.

What Bangladesh needs, therefore, is a comprehensive energy strategy that addresses the immediate shortage while strengthening long-term energy security.

The goal should not merely be to produce more energy, but to waste less, use it more efficiently, diversify supply, and manage the system transparently.

The diagnosis is right
Gas production has dropped to roughly 1,700-1,800 mmcfd, down from about 2,500 mmcfd in 2018, pushing Bangladesh toward costly LNG, with spot prices recently topping US$21 per MMBtu.

Against this backdrop, the government’s plan to revive BAPEX, clear the backlog of workovers and recompletions, and reopen offshore and onshore bidding rounds makes sense.

Bangladesh remains significantly under-explored, and the fastest, cheapest gains are likely to come from existing wells, known structures, and previously identified prospects – not from building more LNG-import infrastructure.

The Srikail-5 well, which reportedly added around 8 mmcfd to the national grid in March 2026, shows what this approach can deliver.

Such gains look modest individually, but collectively they can make a real difference during a supply crisis.

The timeline mismatches the urgency
Much of the plan is years away. The Kutubjom floating LNG terminal off Cox’s Bazar won’t deliver gas until December 2028; offshore exploration and new production-sharing contracts take years to bear fruit.

These are sound medium-term steps, but they don’t touch today’s crisis – already serious enough that five of the country’s six fertiliser factories have sat idle since March for lack of gas. Bangladesh needs a bridge between now and the plan’s longer-term fixes.

LNG and coal are not the long-term answer
Expanding LNG import capacity while claiming to reduce LNG dependence is contradictory.

LNG can be a useful safety net, not the centrepiece – spot-market exposure makes it a costly, volatile foundation. It should be a bridge, not a destination.

Coal fares no better as a quick fix. Developing Barapukuria or Phulbari would take years of studies before yielding anything, and any decision to proceed must first settle resettlement, groundwater, and environmental safeguards.

The missing piece: demand and efficiency
The plan barely addresses how existing gas is allocated and used. During shortages, fertiliser production and export industries should get priority, since shortfalls there hit food security and foreign-exchange earnings directly.

Cutting losses, improving captive power efficiency, and running regular audits for large industrial users would free up gas without drilling a single new well – every unit saved is a unit gained.

Since residential use now accounts for over half of national electricity consumption against roughly a quarter for industry, appliance-efficiency drives for households deserve equal attention alongside industrial audits.

Increasing supply alone will not solve Bangladesh’s energy problem. The government should also strengthen monitoring and require regular energy audits for large industrial consumers to identify waste and inefficiency.

A daily public energy dashboard – reporting gas production, LNG imports, power generation, major shortages, and government actions – would improve transparency and accountability.

Energy security means not only producing more, but wasting less, using energy efficiently, and managing the system transparently.

A practical three-stage way forward
First, over the next six months, the focus should be on maximising existing resources. Fast-track well workovers, equip BAPEX to meet its drilling targets, restore the Gas Development Fund for exploration, and introduce transparent priorities for gas allocation, alongside immediate energy-efficiency measures.

At the same time, encourage owners of residential and commercial buildings and shopping malls to install rooftop solar panels, supported by targeted tax incentives where appropriate.

Second, over the next two years, accelerate exploration. Approve the Onshore Model PSC, offer competitive terms to attract credible operators, and publish drilling and production targets for public monitoring.

Third, over the next two to five years, diversify. Treat LNG as a bridge and pursue the 5,000 MW solar target through rooftop, utility-scale, irrigation, and floating solar, backed by grid upgrades and storage.

Strengthen energy efficiency and launch the daily public dashboard on production, imports, generation, shortages, and government action.

The bottomline
Producing more gas alone won’t fix this. Bangladesh needs more domestic gas, smarter exploration, more efficient use of what it already has, and LNG as a temporary buffer – not a permanent replacement of one dependence with another.

The five-point plan is a reasonable start, but its success will hinge less on the announcement than on how fast the government delivers, cuts waste, and shields the country from the next fuel-price shock.

(The writer is a distinguished Professor, Eastern University, and Professor (retired), EEE Dept, BUET, Bangladesh)