Fuel import costs may rise by Tk 35,000cr

Bangladesh’s fuel import bill could increase by as much as US$2.8 billion, or around Tk 35,000 crore, in 2026 compared with 2025 if international oil, gas and coal prices remain at their current levels.

The higher import costs could put further pressure on the country’s trade deficit, inflation and the taka, according to an analysis by international research organisation Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).

The analysis, released on Thursday, estimated that Bangladesh’s fossil fuel import costs could be around 30% higher this year than in 2025.

The additional expenditure would be equivalent to nearly 10% of the country’s total trade deficit.

ZCA warned that if current fuel prices persist, Bangladesh’s ability to finance imports could weaken, causing its import cover to fall from 5.7 months to 5.2 months.

The analysis also noted that the additional amount Bangladesh may spend on fossil fuel imports in 2026 could instead finance the installation of around 8 gigawatts of rooftop solar power.

Such capacity would add nearly 25% to the country’s existing electricity generation capacity of around 32GW.

LNG imports fall, but costs remain high Bangladesh’s LNG imports declined by around 13% between January and August this year compared with the same period in 2025.

The sharpest decline came in July and August, when disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz caused LNG imports to fall by around 83%.

According to ZCA data, Bangladesh imported around 630,000 tonnes of LNG in July, but the volume fell to just 110,000 tonnes in August.

Despite the decline in import volumes, fuel expenditure has not fallen. Instead, higher international fuel prices have raised concerns that overall import costs could increase.

Around 64% of Bangladesh’s electricity generation is dependent on gas. As a result, any disruption to LNG supplies directly affects electricity generation.

On August 11, the country’s power supply shortfall reached 3,592MW, equivalent to around 20% of total demand at the time.

Impact on industry and agriculture
The gas shortage is also affecting the industrial and agricultural sectors.

According to ZCA, six of the country’s seven major fertiliser plants are either shut down or operating at reduced capacity because of inadequate gas supplies.

The export-oriented garment industry is also feeling the impact of gas and electricity shortages. Production at several factories in Savar, Ashulia and Dhamrai has reportedly declined by 15% to 20%.

Some rural areas have also experienced power outages lasting as long as eight to 10 hours a day, according to the report.

Growing risks from import dependence
ZCA’s analysis also highlighted a long-term vulnerability in Bangladesh’s energy sector: its growing dependence on imports.

According to the organisation, around 46% of Bangladesh’s total energy supply came from imports in 2023.

In fiscal year 2024-25, imported fuels accounted for around 65% of the country’s electricity demand. In 2025, nearly two-thirds of Bangladesh’s LNG supplies came through the Strait of Hormuz.

To address the current supply crisis, Bangladesh has been seeking LNG from various sources, including the spot market.

The government has approved two spot LNG cargoes for August and September and has also secured eight additional cargoes from suppliers in the United Kingdom, Australia, Malaysia and Oman.

Bangladesh has also sought additional diesel supplies from India.
At the same time, the country is moving towards greater long-term dependence on imported gas.

Bangladesh has signed agreements to purchase 117 LNG cargoes from the United States between 2026 and 2038.