Energy deficit leaves many vulnerable to heat
Despite achieving near-universal access to electricity, Bangladesh remains highly vulnerable to heat-related deaths because electricity use for cooling remains low, according to a new report that warns climate change could widen health inequalities across poorer nations.
Released on Monday by the Climate Impact Lab, the report identifies Bangladesh as one of several countries where access to electricity has not translated into sufficient energy use to protect people from increasingly extreme temperatures.
The study projects that electricity used for cooling will grow seven times faster in middle-income countries than in low-income countries as the climate warms, leaving many poorer nations unable to adapt to rising heat.
Researchers estimate that climate-driven temperature increases could cause around 430,000 additional deaths annually by 2050, with 10 times more deaths occurring in low-income countries than in wealthier nations.
The report says access to affordable and reliable electricity will play a decisive role in reducing heat-related mortality, as cooling technologies such as air conditioning are among the most effective forms of adaptation.
However, many of the countries expected to suffer the greatest increase in extreme heat are also projected to see only minimal growth in electricity consumption.
“Bangladesh is a clear example of why electricity access and electricity use are not the same thing,” said Ashwin Rode, Director of Scientific Research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) and a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab.
“Nearly the whole country already has power access, yet people in the hardest-hit regions are not using much more of it, even as heat deaths there are projected to climb.
Having a connection is not the same as increasing how much power gets used. That gap is what this report points to.”
The report notes that while Bangladesh has largely achieved electricity access, vulnerable communities still lack sufficient energy consumption for cooling, increasing their exposure to extreme heat.
Globally, the report projects that electricity demand for cooling will increase substantially in middle-income countries as economic growth and stronger energy markets improve access to air conditioning and other cooling technologies.
By contrast, the projected increase in electricity consumption per person in low-income countries would be so limited that it would provide enough power to run a single LED light bulb for only four months.
The report identifies vulnerable areas across 18 countries, home to approximately 676 million people, that face the combined challenge of extreme heat and limited access to cooling.
As a result of rising temperatures and inadequate increases in energy use, around 377,000 people living in these regions are projected to die each year by 2050.
These populations are concentrated in low-income and lower middle-income countries, primarily in northern sub-Saharan Africa — including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad — and in South Asia, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Myanmar.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said air conditioning remains one of the most effective ways to save lives during extreme heat.
“Air conditioning is a lifesaver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today’s wealthy countries,” Greenstone said.
“Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way.
The result is one of climate’s great cruelties—lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change.”
He added: “These findings are a clarion call that many countries do not have much time to improve the functioning of their electricity markets so they deliver inexpensive and reliable energy and identify other successful adaptations that can save lives.”
The report contrasts Bangladesh and other vulnerable countries with wealthier Gulf nations such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, where equally high temperatures are offset by much greater electricity consumption for cooling, leading to significantly fewer heat-related deaths.
For example, projected electricity use per person in Niger will be only one-ninth of that in Saudi Arabia, while Niger is expected to record 27,000 more heat-related deaths annually by 2050 than its wealthier counterpart.
“We’ve identified the places most at risk of seeing more people die from the heat and least able to power up ACs to save them, so people and governments can zero in on saving the greatest number of lives,” Rode said.
He said protecting vulnerable communities would require improved access to reliable electricity, heat early warning systems, expanded healthcare services and targeted social protection programmes.
“But as of now, many adaptation approaches remain untested. We’re working to change that,” he added.
The report is the second in the Climate Impact Lab’s Adaptation Roadmap series, which argues that climate adaptation must become a central pillar of global climate policy alongside efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The organisation is developing a global, data-driven playbook to help governments identify the most effective adaptation measures and investments to reduce climate-related health risks.
