Actual budget deficit may reach Tk 4 lakh crore: RAPID

The actual budget deficit may rise to nearly Tk 4 lakh crore if the BNP government’s proposed budget for the financial year of year 2026-27 is fully implemented, private research organisation Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) said yesterday.

The observation was presented on Thursday morning at the CIRDAP auditorium, where RAPID organised a discussion on the newly announced national budget.

RAPID Chairman MA Razzaque said, “I would like to say that if the government believes it can implement the entire Tk 9.38 lakh crore budget, then the budget deficit will be much, much higher than the Tk 2.43 lakh crore deficit projected in the budget.”

The economist explained that the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has been assigned a revenue collection target of Tk 6.04 lakh crore , but RAPID expects a shortfall of at least Tk 1 lakh crore.

“Even if the government achieves an extraordinary revenue performance this fiscal year (2026-27), we still believe there will be a deficit of around Tk 1trillion compared to the NBR target.”
He added that past performance supports this concern.

“You all know the NBR’s track record. Every year the government sets ambitious revenue targets in the budget, but the NBR has consistently failed to collect the full amount.”

At the same event Prime Minister’s adviser on the ministries of Finance and Planning, Dr. Rashed Al Mahmud was present as the chief guest and said the government has undertaken initiatives to increase revenue collection by expanding production and economic activities rather than raising tax rates.

Titumir said the government has adopted a new development model centred on investment, production, employment generation and enhanced domestic resource mobilization without increasing tax rates.

“Revenue collection should be increased through the expansion of production and economic activities, not by increasing tax rates. The government is implementing policies and action plans with this objective in mind,” he said.

“We have moved towards a new model – from investment to production, from production to employment, and from employment to increased domestic resource mobilization without raising tax rates.

This marks a significant departure from previous approaches,” Titumir added.
Rasheda K Chowdhury, Former Adviser to the Caretaker Government was present at the event as the Guest of Honour. Dr M Abu Eusuf, Executive Director of RAPID and Professor of Development Studies at the University of Dhaka moderated the discussion.

The dialogue convened distinguished policymakers, economists, business leaders, development practitioners, academics, labour representatives.