Sir John Curtice: Election results show politics in the UK has fragmented

The overnight local election results have confirmed that, for the time being at least, electoral politics in Britain has become highly fragmented.

Reform are certainly the winners. The party has won most seats – 30% of those declared so far.

Meanwhile in a sample of over 500 wards where the BBC has collected the detailed voting figures, the party has recorded an average vote share of 26% – not an especially high figure but still enough to put them well ahead of all of their rivals.

Nigel Farage’s party has done best in places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016.

In wards where more than 60% voted for Leave in 2015, support for Reform has averaged 41%.

In contrast, in places where less than 49% backed Brexit, Reform won on average just 10%.

The one place where it has gained control of a council, Newcastle-under-Lyme, voted by nearly two-to-one in favour of Brexit. The Greens’ success was more modest.

They have averaged 16% of the vote in the wards declared so far, much as we would anticipate from their standing in the polls.

Nevertheless, this represents a seven-point increase on the party’s support when this round of local elections was last held in 2022 – and on its performance in the local elections held shortly before the 2024 general election.

This suggests the Greens are heading for their best local election performance ever.

However, so far at least, the party has yielded a net gain of just 25 seats.

The party has secured a number of creditable second and (especially) third places, but relatively few firsts.

In contrast, both Labour and the Conservatives have suffered a sharp loss of support.