Strategic autonomy key for Bangladesh
The International Crisis Group has said that Bangladesh’s diversification of foreign relations would strengthen its “strategic autonomy” and help it navigate an increasingly complex regional environment, particularly amid intensifying major-power competition in the Indo-Pacific.
In a briefing titled “Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business”, the Brussels-based conflict prevention organisation warned that Dhaka should avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc.
It said such balance would allow Bangladesh to manage external pressures more effectively while reducing domestic political backlash linked to perceptions of overdependence on specific partners.
The report noted that “given intensifying major-power competition in the Indo-Pacific, it should avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc.”
It further observed that the most urgent diplomatic task for the new administration would be rebuilding relations with India.
The Crisis Group said that strained ties in recent years had contributed to regional tensions, adding that “after she fell, bilateral relations plummeted to ‘historic lows’,” referring to the period following former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s departure.
The organisation also noted that Hasina had maintained close ties with New Delhi, aligning Dhaka’s foreign policy closely with Indian security and economic priorities.
It said her exit had triggered a diplomatic reset, with India, China and other powers now seeking to strengthen engagement with Bangladesh’s new leadership.
According to the report, India’s outreach to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has continued, including an invitation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Tarique Rahman to visit India.
The Crisis Group said both sides should build on what it described as a “long overdue reset,” although it cautioned that domestic political dynamics in both countries would limit progress.
A senior Bangladeshi official told UNB that the new government is following a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy approach, drawing inspiration from the diplomatic stance of late President Ziaur Rahman.
The official said Dhaka aims to maintain “respectful, mutually beneficial relations with all nations, particularly neighbours, grounded in sovereign equality and shared interests.”
The Crisis Group said the BNP-led administration has taken office amid significant global and regional changes, creating both opportunities and risks.
It noted that under former Prime Minister Hasina, Bangladesh’s foreign policy was closely aligned with India, but that current shifts have opened space for broader engagement.
The report highlighted active diplomatic engagement from major powers.
It said the United States, under President Donald Trump, has prioritised trade and strategic competition with China, including through a Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed in early February.
It also noted that Washington had urged Dhaka to uphold existing trade commitments and advance defence-related agreements.
China, meanwhile, continues to position itself as a key infrastructure partner, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressing readiness to deepen “high-quality Belt and Road cooperation” and elevate the bilateral partnership.
The Crisis Group said Beijing has emphasised a policy of non-interference while expanding economic engagement across political lines.
The report added that Bangladesh will also need to balance relations with the European Union, Japan, Pakistan, Türkiye, Gulf states and Russia as it recalibrates its diplomatic posture.
It further noted that foreign governments were quick to recognise the BNP’s electoral victory, with both India and Western powers signalling readiness to engage.
The United States and China, in particular, moved swiftly to strengthen ties with the new administration.
The Crisis Group identified the Rohingya refugee crisis as one of Bangladesh’s most pressing foreign policy and humanitarian challenges.
It said that continued conflict in Myanmar, especially in Rakhine State, means the estimated 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar are unlikely to return home in the near future.
It warned that limited third-country resettlement options and declining international aid—following reductions in USAID funding—have placed additional strain on humanitarian support systems.
The World Food Programme has already reduced food assistance in some camps.
The organisation argued that current restrictions preventing refugees from working leave them heavily dependent on aid and recommended allowing greater access to livelihood opportunities, in line with proposals in the BNP’s 2023 policy paper.
It also stressed the need to address security risks posed by armed groups operating in and around refugee camps and called for renewed engagement with actors in Myanmar, including the Arakan Army, which now controls much of Rakhine State.
The Crisis Group concluded that Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy landscape will require careful balancing, sustained diplomacy, and pragmatic engagement to manage both regional pressures and long-standing humanitarian challenges.
