Hormuz now completely open for 10-day truce

The Strait of Hormuz has been declared fully open to commercial shipping, offering a fragile sense of relief to global energy markets after weeks of disruption caused by escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the vital maritime corridor would remain accessible following a ceasefire agreement linked to parallel developments in Lebanon.

In a post on X, Araghchi confirmed that all commercial vessels could resume passage through the strait for the duration of a US-brokered 10-day truce involving Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah.

He added that ships must adhere to designated routes outlined by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation, signalling that while access has been restored, navigation remains tightly controlled.
The reopening of the Strait marks a critical moment in a conflict that has shaken the region since late February.

The US-Israeli confrontation with Iran, which erupted on February 28, has left thousands dead and triggered widespread instability across the Middle East.

One of its most consequential effects was the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but indispensable waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transit.

The shutdown had raised fears of a historic energy crisis, with analysts warning of severe supply shocks and soaring fuel prices worldwide.

However, news of the Strait’s reopening prompted an immediate reaction in global markets. Oil prices dropped sharply, falling by around nine per cent and extending earlier losses as traders responded to the reduced risk of supply disruption.

The broader economic implications remain significant. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week downgraded its global growth projections, cautioning that a prolonged conflict could push the world economy towards recession.

The reopening of the Strait may ease some of that pressure, but uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook.

Shortly after Araghchi’s announcement, US President Donald Trump echoed the development on his Truth Social platform, declaring that Iran had confirmed the Strait was “fully open and ready for passage.”

He also expressed confidence that a broader agreement to end the war with Iran could be reached soon, though he did not provide a clear timeline.

Despite the optimistic tone, Trump maintained that a US military blockade targeting vessels bound for Iranian ports would remain in force.

The measure, introduced after recent talks in Islamabad failed to yield an agreement, is expected to continue until what Trump described as a “100 per cent complete” deal is finalised.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing but face considerable hurdles. Talks between US and Iranian officials, expected to take place in the Pakistani capital, have yet to be confirmed, with logistical challenges delaying their scheduling.

While Trump had suggested negotiations could resume as early as this weekend, such a timeline now appears unlikely.

Behind the scenes, however, there are signs of cautious progress. Sources familiar with the negotiations say backchannel diplomacy has advanced, raising the possibility of an initial memorandum of understanding in the near future, potentially paving the way for a comprehensive agreement within two months.

Still, key disagreements persist, particularly over Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington has proposed a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear activities, while Tehran has countered with a shorter freeze of three to five years.

The issue of highly enriched uranium stockpiles remains another sticking point, with the US pushing for their removal from Iran and Tehran reportedly considering limited concessions.

Public rhetoric from Iranian officials suggests resistance to external pressure. In Tehran, senior cleric Ahmad Khatami struck a defiant tone during Friday prayers, stating that Iran would not negotiate under conditions of humiliation.

Similar sentiments were echoed in Isfahan, Iran’s third-largest city, underscoring the domestic sensitivities surrounding any potential deal.

Meanwhile, regional dynamics continue to play a crucial role. A US-backed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at halting clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, appears to be largely holding despite reports of isolated violations.

The Lebanese front had intensified in early March after Hezbollah launched attacks on northern Israel in support of Tehran, triggering a major Israeli offensive that has reportedly killed around 2,000 people.

Pakistan, which has positioned itself as a mediator, has emphasised that stability in Lebanon is essential for broader negotiations involving Iran.

Security measures in Islamabad have been heightened in anticipation of future talks, although daily life in the city has not been significantly disrupted.

For now, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offers a temporary reprieve for global markets and energy-dependent economies.

But the situation remains highly fluid. With military tensions unresolved and diplomatic negotiations still incomplete, the risk of renewed disruption cannot be ruled out.