Rohingya Repatriation: Talks stall, emergency support needs rise

Bangladesh continues to host one of the largest protracted refugee populations in the world, with the Rohingya crisis showing no sign of a durable solution as the situation has been compounded with the passage of time.

Due to escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State – particularly involving the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar military (Junta) – over 150,000 to 179,000 new Rohingya refugees have crossed into Bangladesh since early 2024.

According to the latest UNHCR and UNFPA estimates, more than 1.17 million Rohingya refugees are living in Bangladesh, primarily in crowded settlements in Cox’s Bazar, with tens of thousands on Bhasan Char Island.

The majority of these displaced people are women and children, and the vast scale of need has stretched humanitarian systems to their limits.

Despite years of international dialogue, including Yunus government’s international conference at UN, repatriation efforts remain stalled and the government continues to emphasise that return to Myanmar is the only viable long term solution.

During a recent meeting with UNHCR Country Representative Ivo Freijsen, Shama Obaed, the State Minister for Foreign Affairs reaffirmed Dhaka’s position, stating, “Repatriation of Rohingyas to Myanmar is the only viable solution to the crisis.”

She praised the UN refugee agency’s leadership under the Rohingya Response Plan but added that international partners must remain committed to making repatriation possible.

Officials in Dhaka have echoed this stance repeatedly, but the reality on the ground shows a deepening disconnect between policy intentions and practical outcomes.

Humanitarian needs among the Rohingya are severe. Congested, temporary shelters in Cox’s Bazar struggle with sanitation, access to safe water, and protection services.

According to recent humanitarian reports, tens of thousands of Rohingya children – up to 236,000 between the ages of 5 and 17 – are out of school due to declining funding for educational programmes.

If support does not increase, risks such as child marriage, labour, exploitation and trafficking are likely to rise across the camps, sources said.

The lack of a legal national asylum framework in Bangladesh, combined with restrictions on movement and limited work opportunities for refugees, has entrenched dependency on aid, which is also declining.

UNHCR’s own operational reviews note that despite ongoing efforts to improve conditions, protection concerns remain high, with refugees highly vulnerable to environmental hazards and protection risks.

The 2025-2026 Joint Response Plan faced significant funding gaps, leaving only 35% of the required US$934.5 million funded as of July 2025.

On the other hand, food rations have been halved, causing severe malnutrition, with child mortality rates for those under five exceeding 30 per cent in some areas.

On top of these structural challenges, a fire in January 2026 destroyed hundreds of shelters and displaced thousands more, underscoring the fragility of camp infrastructure and the constant threat of disasters in an already overburdened setting.

Earlier this year, Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman outlined a doctrine focused on national interests and proactive engagement with global partners, promising a “bold and responsibility driven foreign policy”.

This was described as adhering to a “Bangladesh First” approach in diplomacy.

This shift also reflects increased engagement with external actors, including discussions with international figures such as the United States Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia on a range of issues, including cooperation on Rohingya repatriation and humanitarian support.

However, with the formation of a political government here, the Myanmar’s Union Minister for Foreign Affairs Than Swe and Chairman of the United League of Arakan Twan Mrat Naing for the first time in February sent congratulatory letter to the Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rhaman. Dhaka welcomed this gesture as a positive sign.

Even an official of the Foreign Ministry said that such gesture reflects their confidence in the new government of Bangladesh in promoting a peaceful resolution of the protracted Rohingya issue.

“Continued engagement with Myanmar should be made visible so that the Roringya issue does not go out of sight.

The world focus has been diverted to Middle East war. But we should not forget the Rohingya issue,” former Professor of Dhaka University Dr Imtiaz Ahmed told the New Nation recently.

“The Rohingya crisis has become a burden for us. Durable repatriation is the only solution for it. As a new political government in Bangladesh is in power, fresh initiatives should be taken,” he said.

He also expresses concerns over declining international funding as a core challenge, noting that the humanitarian response cannot be sustained without renewed global commitment.

Without significant shifts in Myanmar politics, sustained global funding, and a credible roadmap for return that addresses security, citizenship and human rights, the Rohingya will likely remain in displacement for years to come, experts warned.