Post-election economy likely to turnaround

The forecast for Bangladesh’s economy in the January edition of the World Bank’s newly published ‘Global Economic Prospects’ has opened a window of optimism amid long-standing stress and uncertainty.

According to the organization, GDP growth is expected to be 4.6 percent in the current fiscal year 2025-26, but it could rise to 6.1 percent in the next fiscal year.

The WB made this forecast based on an important political and administrative shift.

The national elections scheduled for February 12, 2026 and the reform-oriented steps of the next government are therefore not only opening the door to positive possibilities, but also reminding us of the challenges of the present.

Bangladesh’s economy has been going through a long period of high inflation and tight monetary policy.

The report says, the decline in bank credit flowand tariff risks in international trade, growth is likely to pick up. But the key to this potential lies in post-election political stability.

It is hoped that the confidence that will return among investors once political uncertainty is removed through the elections will breathe new life into the economy.

The most promising aspect of the report is the expectation of structural reforms from the new government.

After an election, governments usually undertake reform programmes with renewed vigour.

If bureaucratic complexity can be resolved, banking sector reforms can be implemented, and industry-friendly policies can be implemented, private investment will increase significantly.

The World Bank believes that people’s consumption spending will increase and inflation will gradually return to a tolerable level, which will further stimulate the wheels of growth.Bangladesh is not far behind other South Asian countries in the race for growth.

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in particular indicates that the economy is turning around since the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Growth, which was only 2.58 percent in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, has increased to 4.5 percent this year.

The risk of potential US retaliatory tariffs and controlling domestic inflation will be the main challenges for the next government.

If structural reforms cannot be initiated quickly, capitalizing on political stability after the elections, it may be difficult to achieve this positive forecast from the World Bank.

Bangladesh’s economy has proven many times in the past that it can bounce back quickly if given the right direction.

This time, there is no reason to be an exception. If the political situation returns through elections, and the necessary reforms are implemented, the economy will be able to stand on solid ground again.