Dhaka at centre of power play: Diplomacy ramps up before polls
Al Mamun Harun Ur Rashid :
The diplomatic corridors of Dhaka have become the centre of an intense phase of “diplomatic stewardship”, with global and regional powers – including the United States, China, India, Pakistan and the European Union – actively engaging with emerging political actors to safeguard their strategic and economic interests.
The forthcoming vote marks the first electoral test since the 2024 “Monsoon Revolution”, which ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule and led to the banning of the Awami League. In its aftermath, major international stakeholders are seeking to secure influence within Bangladesh’s fragmented political landscape and are looking to a credible democratic transition to restore stability.
The traditional two-party structure has fractured into a competitive field that now includes revived Islamist groups, student-driven formations such as the National Citizen Party (NCP), and a resurgent Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) attempting to regain prominence after years of political marginalisation.
One of the most notable developments is India’s strategic recalibration. New Delhi, which had long viewed the BNP with caution and traditionally aligned itself with the Awami League, has taken a markedly different approach. A striking shift occurred on 31 December 2025, when Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman in Dhaka during the funeral of former prime minister Khaleda Zia.
Jaishankar, carrying a message from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressed confidence that the BNP’s “vision and values” would help guide the bilateral relationship.
Analysts say this change is rooted in strategic necessity. India shares a 4,096-kilometre border with Bangladesh and requires a stable partner to ensure security in its landlocked Northeastern states.
Former Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla remarked in September that Rahman had shown “maturity” during his 17-year exile, describing him as potentially New Delhi’s “safest bet” to prevent regional instability.
While India seeks a diplomatic thaw, China is pursuing a strategy of “diversification”. Beijing has moved quickly to deepen engagement with both the BNP and the reinstated Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), aiming to shield its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments from political disruption.
A high-level BNP delegation visited Beijing in June 2025, reaffirming the “One China Principle”, a position central to China’s foreign policy.
Chinese diplomats have also held party-to-party discussions with JeI leaders on major infrastructure schemes, including the Teesta Barrage, deep-sea port projects and “Blue Economy” programmes. Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen has maintained a visible presence, holding several meetings with Tarique Rahman on regional stability and future cooperation.
Western engagement has also evolved. In a move generating significant debate, US and UK envoys have in recent months increased their outreach to Islamist parties.
Throughout 2025, senior US officials, including Charge d’Affaires Traci Anne Jacobson, held multiple meetings with political leaders as part of what diplomatic sources describe as “diplomatic testing”-an attempt to assess whether groups such as JeI can operate within a multi-party democratic framework while upholding human rights and minority protections.
The European Union is preparing to play an expanded role. It plans to deploy its largest election observation mission since 2008, with 150 to 180 monitors expected for the February polls. EU Ambassador Michael Miller has recently met a range of stakeholders, including Prof Muhammad Yunus and Tarique Rahman, to discuss electoral transparency and the potential for a “unity government” to support economic stabilisation.
Bangladesh’s shifting geopolitical alignments are also reflected in a new defence posture. The interim government is advancing a policy of “defence diversification” to reduce dependency on traditional suppliers such as India and Russia.
Turkey has emerged as a significant partner, providing NATO-standard systems including HISAR and SIPER missile platforms and Bayraktar UAVs. Meanwhile, relations with Pakistan have warmed considerably, with discussions under way on defence procurement, including the possible acquisition of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets. For India, this “Dhaka-Islamabad rapprochement”, coupled with increased Turkish and Chinese hardware, represents a notable strategic concern on its eastern frontier.
International attention is also focused on the interim government’s proposed 84-point July Charter of reforms spearheaded by Prof Yunus. The Charter includes major structural changes such as the introduction of a bicameral parliament, term limits for prime ministers and the reinstatement of the caretaker government system. Although the BNP and 24 other parties have endorsed the initiative, its legitimacy hinges on a public referendum scheduled alongside the general election.
Prof Yunus has been actively campaigning for a “Yes” vote, arguing that the Charter is vital to preventing a return to authoritarian tendencies. Analysts at Chatham House warn, however, that a “No” vote would leave the next government without a clear mandate for reform and could trigger another cycle of political confrontation.
Diplomats and analysts say the 12 February double vote will be a crucial test of Bangladesh’s transition towards a more pluralistic and multipolar political order after decades dominated by dynastic power.