NSC sales plunge over 50pc in early FY26 amid inflation and tight liquidity
Business Report :
The net sales of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) in Bangladesh have suffered a dramatic 53.62 percent year-on-year decline during the first four months of the current fiscal year, highlighting growing financial pressures on small investors.
According to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank, net NSC sales fell to Tk 2,369 crore23.69 billion between July and October 2025, down sharply from Tk 5,108 crore recorded in the same period of FY25. Analysts attribute the slump to a combination of rising inflation, tighter liquidity, and reduced disposable income, creating a “perfect storm” for retail savings instruments.
The decline began in July 2025, when sales dropped to Tk 1,293 crore , down 41 percent from the previous year. August saw a sharp crash to just Tk 279 crore , compared with Tk 2,036 crore in August 2024. The nadir was reached in September, with sales plummeting 95.5 percent year-on-year to Tk 373 crore.
Nevertheless, the overall quarterly performance underscores ongoing volatility and a lack of investor confidence in NSCs as a reliable savings vehicle.
Dr Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, explained that the slump reflects intense pressure on household finances amid soaring living costs. “With real incomes eroded, small savers are prioritising daily expenses over long-term savings. Reduced effective returns and stricter compliance have further weakened the appeal of NSCs,” he said.
The cooling interest in NSCs is also linked to regulatory and structural changes. Currently, the five-year Bangladesh Savings Certificate offers 11.83 percent interest for investments up to Tk 7.5 lakh , with slightly lower rates for higher investment slabs. The effective first-year return has been trimmed from 10.13 percent to 9.74 percent.
The mandatory integration of e-TINs and National ID cards through the National Savings Certificates Online Management System, launched in 2019, has helped curb misuse by institutional and speculative investors, but has also contributed to lower aggregate sales.
Net sales stood at negative Tk 6,063 crore in FY25 after plunging to a record negative Tk 21,124 crore in FY24, following negative Tk 3,295 crore in FY23.
The outstanding stock of NSCs declined to Tk 3.41 lakh crore in October 2025 from Tk 3.51 lakh crore a year earlier, reflecting steady repayments exceeding new issuance.
Net NSC sales peaked at Tk 52,417 crore in FY17 and Tk 49,939 crore in FY19, but current trends indicate a structural shift in government borrowing strategy, with lasting implications for household savings, fiscal costs and debt management.