China retail sales, factory output growth weaken in October

Business Desk :

Retail sales and industrial output in China weakened last month, underlining the challenges Beijing faces in reviving momentum in the world’s second-largest economy, according to official data released Friday.

The country has struggled with sluggish domestic spending since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, while a prolonged debt crisis in the property sector continues to weigh on consumer confidence.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed retail sales rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in October, down from 3 percent in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing growth since a 6.4 percent peak in May. The slowdown comes as Beijing and Washington agreed to a one-year trade truce at an October 30 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Despite ongoing trade tensions, China’s exports have remained relatively resilient this year, supported by rising shipments to Southeast Asia. However, boosting domestic demand has proven more difficult. At a major Communist Party meeting last month, leaders emphasised the need to “vigorously boost consumption” to support long-term growth.

Moody’s Ratings warned this week that China’s domestic demand “may be slow to revive,” stressing the importance of improving income distribution and strengthening social safety nets to stimulate spending.

Factory activity also fell short of expectations. Industrial production grew 4.9 percent year-on-year, below Bloomberg’s forecast of 5.5 percent and the slowest pace since August 2023. “Weaker external demand” contributed significantly to the decline, said Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, who expects overall economic conditions to remain subdued in the coming months.

The property sector central to China’s previous growth model remains in deep distress. New home prices fell in 61 of 70 major cities surveyed in October, continuing a multi-year slump. Fixed-asset investment also declined 1.7 percent in the January-October period, extending a downturn that began in September.
Analysts say the government is unlikely to introduce major new stimulus measures this year, with China still appearing “on track” to meet its 5 percent growth target for 2025, according to Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management.