Optimism isn’t enough to hit $63.5b export target

Bangladesh’s new export target of $63.5 billion, representing a 16.5 per cent increase over last year’s earnings, has been described by Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin as “quite conservative”.

Our newspaper on Wednesday reported that this confidence rests on the continued dominance of the apparel sector, which now contributes the lion’s share of foreign exchange earnings, alongside promising diversification into non-traditional products and new markets. Negotiations for free trade agreements with Japan, South Korea and Singapore underline a welcome strategic shift towards expanding commercial horizons.

However, India’s sudden ban on imports of certain jute products through land ports has naturally raised concerns among exporters in Bangladesh.

Yet Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin’s assurance that the measure will have little impact on the country’s ambitious new export target for the 2025–26 fiscal year is both a measured and optimistic assessment.

The reasoning is sound: jute is no longer the dominant earner it once was, and bilateral trade flows remain firmly tilted in India’s favour.

Still, optimism must be tempered with realism. The international trading environment remains volatile, and while India’s jute restriction may be navigable — given continued access via the Nhava Sheva seaport — domestic constraints risk becoming the more significant obstacle.

Industry leaders have rightly flagged the gas crisis, banking sector instability, inefficient customs procedures and law-and-order concerns as pressing impediments to growth. No export target, however well-calculated, can be met if production is hampered at home.

Moreover, while the adviser’s emphasis on duty-free market access and reciprocal tariff reductions, particularly with the United States, is well-placed, trade diplomacy can be a long and uncertain process.

Not all agreements will prove favourable, and the government must guard against deals that open the market too widely to imports that undermine domestic industries.

Bangladesh has demonstrated resilience before, navigating global downturns, shifting consumer trends and competitive pressures.

If the government and private sector can work in genuine partnership — resolving energy shortages, reforming banking oversight, streamlining customs and reinforcing the rule of law — the FY26 export target may not only be met but surpassed.

India’s jute ban, then, is not the defining challenge. The greater test lies within our borders. And it is one we can overcome — if ambition is matched with decisive action.