Is the Maldives’ new president inviting danger from India by becoming more pro-Chinese?

Nusanta Samayel Audri :

The Maldives, noted for its immaculate white beaches and private resorts, has also grown in importance on the international scene. Plenty is happening in the Maldives, beginning with the presidential election.

Mohamed Muizzu, the 8th president of the Maldives, has requested India to withdraw its military from the archipelago. Despite the Maldives government’s call for the withdrawal, both New Delhi and Malé have agreed to talk about practical strategies for the presence of Indian military assets.

The president has declared it to be a top priority, but Maldives has not disclosed the precise number of military men or the date of the evacuation yet.

Indian minister Kiren Rijiju met with Maldives President Dr Mohamed Muizzu in Malè on 18th November, representing India at the oath-taking ceremony of the new Maldives President, following a meeting in the Indian Ocean Island country.

In order to protect the independence and sovereignty of the Maldives, the president was adamant that no foreign military should be stationed there, and he took this into consideration while making his decision.

Nevertheless, we cannot overlook the Maldives’ recent leadership transition, the impending major realignments, and the South Asian competitive dynamics between China and India.

Muizzu won the presidential election by defeating the incumbent Ibrahim Solih with 54% of votes in September following a pledge to withdraw the 70-75 small contingent of Indian military forces.

He promised during his inauguration to put the interests of the Maldivians first and to keep diplomatic relations with China, India, and other nations balanced.

As a former Malè Mayor, he declared to forge close ties with China, and his conciliatory attitude towards the Chinese people is not new; it is a reflection of China’s dedication to its people.

As a Progressive Alliance member, Muizzu is perceived as pro-China, signalling that the Maldives’ foreign policy may change in favour of China.

India could face a setback in this regard, as Solih, a Maldivian Democratic Party member, was the interim president till November 17.

Viewing India as a friend and collaborator, Solih recognised the Maldives as a vital maritime partner and supported Malé in defence, security, economic development, and maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean region. Because of the Maldives’ advantageous location in the Indian Ocean, China is trying to increase its influence there.

China’s aggressive push depends on the existence of international maritime lines of communication (SLOCS). Nonetheless, parties supporting China or India have turned Maldivian foreign policy into a contentious local political issue.

After a courtesy call by India’s Minister of Earth Sciences to the president of the Maldives, the Maldives has asked India to remove its soldiers, claiming it as a way to encourage more autonomous and equitable diplomacy.

However, this call wasn’t promptly responded to by India’s Ministry of Defence.

Muizzu’s supporters have been perceived as pro-China even though they were considered to be backing the “India Out” campaign in 2018, which the previous administration was adamantly against.

Drawing a red line and expecting others to follow, the president stated interest in pursuing Maldivian foreign policy while avoiding geopolitical rivalry and showing promising signs of negotiation with China.

Thus, in addition to restating the electoral mandate, there’s a good reason why the Maldives won’t be able to conduct inclusive and comprehensive diplomacy with other nations if India keeps up its military presence.

Furthermore, there are some conjectures regarding the preparations for the advancement in response to some pressure from China.

China intends to increase its influence in the Indian Ocean, which is why the Maldives are important to it.

The Maldives’ decision to remove Indian troops came on the same day that Chinese President Shen Yiqin’s Special Envoy congratulated President Muizzu on his accomplishment at the inauguration and expressed optimism about forging stronger ties throughout his term.

This move is seen by some Chinese observers as a step towards more autonomous diplomacy and inclusive engagement with more nations.

Indian and Western media sources have criticised the notion that India’s troop withdrawal request is intended for China, claiming that China’s open and bold approach is appreciated.

According to the Associated Press and the Indian Express, the Maldives’ action is intended to tilt towards China.

The question is if the Maldives have forgotten how India has safeguarded and aided them for decades, while China is pushing them deeper into debt.

The president’s pledge of a new chapter in their shared historic affinity might pave the way for more regional and economic cooperation.

The Maldives’ call for the return of Indian soldiers may be prudent, as it may open up diplomatic possibilities with other countries (particularly with China), or it may sour bilateral relations between the Maldives and India.

Considering India’s longstanding preeminence in the Maldives, Malé is expected to remain attentive to India’s broader strategic worries about China, but it will also push for tighter connections with Beijing and the expansion of China’s connectivity and infrastructure initiatives in the country.

Regardless, the China-India political rivalry will probably persist in the Maldives, as it does in the rest of India’s vicinity.

China may have had a slight advantage in this issue, but Maldives realises that placing all of its efforts towards leveraging China’s completion is not in Maldives’ best interests.

With both India and China striving for influence in the Indo-Pacific, the Maldives may carry greater geostrategic importance than many realise, but this is a situation worth keeping a watchful eye on.

The writer is a student of sociology, University of Dhaka.