Way out of Bangladesh-Myan mar crisis

Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
The tension that we are seeing now at the Bangladesh-Myanmar border is nothing new. We have a history of trouble along the 271 km border between the two countries – both land and maritime. For instance, in 1978, there was a border skirmish with the Myanmar military that called for mobilization and deployment of Bangladeshi troops at the border. We nearly had a maritime conflict in 2008 as well, when Myanmar deployed its naval ships to put a Korean drilling rig in our exclusive economic zone close to St Martin’s Island. The current problem, however, started mainly with the influx of Rohingyas who fled Myanmar in 2017. Since then, we have been housing a large population of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, and facing a number of issues that are involved with housing such a large number of people. We need to settle these issues with Myanmar because we want to repatriate the refugees. The problem that we are observing now along the border starts primarily with the presence of ARSA and the Arakan Army in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, who have been battling the Myanmar army for some time. ARSA is, however, not a strong force, unlike the Arakan Army, which has ethnic-independent aspirations in the Rakhine province and has been battling the Tatmadaw for some time now. The Arakan Army is the military wing of the United League of Arakan, which was formed in 2009. Over the last couple of years, it has grown in strength. They now have the support of the Rakhine population in large parts of the province. The Tatmadaw is worried that if the Arakan Army continues to gain strength, they may lose control in this part of the country.
What should Bangladesh do now? First of all, the current tension that we have along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border must be resolved peacefully and diplomatically. There must never be a thought that we can solve the problem militarily or through conflict. But then, only diplomatic moves are not enough. It has to be backed up by deterrents, because deterrents are what give a biting power to diplomatic moves. Some international experts have also argued that military balances have probably tilted towards the Myanmar side, which has made it difficult for us to show the adequate level of deterrence. But we must make an effort to ensure our diplomatic moves have a strong backup.
Diplomatically, our foreign ministry has so far called the Myanmar ambassador to hand over protest notes. I don’t think it has made any difference. I have heard that the foreign ministry is also going to brief the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (Asean) ambassadors, and they will talk to other places and other capitals. Bangladesh called the Myanmar ambassador four times over the last few weeks and gave strong notes of protest. As we can see, they have not had any practical impact, because they have continued to violate our border and air space. What is worrying is that there is a chance that the conflict that is going on between the separatist forces within the Rakhine province and the Tatmadaw may spill over into Bangladesh. There is also the possibility of the current conflict escalating into a bigger one. That is why we must try and put a stop to it now.
More importantly, we should talk to the countries that back Myanmar. Myanmar’s strength comes from three major sources of power — India, Russia and China. We should talk to them so that they talk to Myanmar or the Tatmadaw, so that these actions are stopped immediately. And if nothing happens, we should take it to the UN Security Council and place our case there. But we must make all the efforts diplomatically, so that the problem does not escalate to the level of a conflict, and that it is resolved peacefully.
Military diplomacy is being discussed in many countries lately, but its history is very old. The impact of Rohingya crisis and recent border dispute carry negative message for regional peace, security and stability. The delay in Rohingya repatriation will be a threatening factor for regional peace and security. Military diplomacy and influence may act the promotional role player in resolving the Rohingya Crisis. Moreover, the military role will be able to promote bilateral relation as Myanmar is governed by Military govt. now. So with this end in view, our foreign ministry can formulate plans and policies to resolving the Rohingya crisis. trong multilateral diplomacy is the way out of Bangladesh-Myanmar border crisis. In this regard, military diplomacy needs to be strengthened. To minimalize the tension, the regional countries must be very cordial and come forward with a positive attitude. Besides, the international agencies should create pressure on Myanmar.
The Muslim community, specially the country like Malaysia and Indonesia should extend the cordial cooperation as a member of the Asian countries to solve the crisis. Lastly, the role of India and china should be very significant and visible. If India or china becomes friend or cordial and if any of the country takes a very precise role, situation will no more be clumsier and crisis will be solved. In this regard, the role of US is also significant. So whoever becomes a real friend of Bangladesh should be taken as the top moist priority for the sack of our nation’s future interest.

(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh
Ansar and VDP).