Would Ukraine crisis end in a war?

Ibne Siraj :
All developments taking place in Ukraine since the deployment of military force by Moscow in the Crimean peninsula speak of the fact that Russia will not go to war with the people of Ukraine, except using its troops to protect the Russian nationals. If the radicals with clout in Kiev now try to use violence against Ukrainian civilians, particularly ethnic Russians, Moscow will act positively to protect the people. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also made it clear that there is no need for any military action as yet although he has been given a mandate by the Russian senate to use military force to protect civilians in Ukraine. Putin cited the actions of radical activists in Ukraine, including the chaining of a governor to a stage as public humiliation and the killing of a technician during an opposition siege of the Party of Regions HQ, as justification for Russia to be concerned for the lives and well-being of people in eastern and southern Ukraine. Incidents like those are why Russia reserves the option of troop deployment on the table. “If we see this lawlessness starting in eastern regions, if the people ask us for help – in addition to a plea from a legitimate president, which we already have – then we reserve the right to use all the means we possess to protect those citizens. And we consider it quite legitimate,” he said. Russia is not planning to go to war with the Ukrainian people, Putin stressed, when a journalist asked if he was afraid of war. But Russian troops would prevent any attempts to target Ukrainian civilians, should they be deployed.
“We are not going to a war against the Ukrainian people,” he said. “I want you to understand it unambiguously. If we do take a decision, it would only be to protect Ukrainian citizens. Let anybody in the military dare, and they’d be shooting their own people, who would stand up in front of us. Shoot at women and children. I’d like to see anyone try and order such a thing in Ukraine.” Putin dismissed the notion that the uniformed armed people without insignia who are currently present in Crimea are Russian soldiers. He said they are members of the Crimean self-defense forces and that they are no better equipped and trained than some radical fighters who took part in the ousting of Yanukovich. He assured that the surprise military drills in Russia’s west which ended recently had nothing to do with the Ukrainian situation. When asked how he sees the future of Crimea, and whether the possibility of it joining Russia is under consideration, Putin answered “No.” Generally, he believes that only residents of a given country who have freedom of will and are in complete safety can and should determine their future. If this right was granted to the Albanians in Kosovo, if this was made possible in many different parts of the world, then nobody has ruled out the right of nations to self-determination, which, as far as he knows, is fixed by several UN documents. However, Moscow will in no way provoke any such decision and will not perpetuate such sentiments.
Putin has dubbed the West’s threat of sanctions against Russia as counterproductive and also refuted the criticism of the United States and its allies of the Russian stance on Ukraine. “Even if Russia does use force in Ukraine, it would not violate international law,” he said and at the same time he accused the United States and its allies of having no regard to legitimacy when they use military force in pursuit of their own national interests. “When I ask them ‘Do you believe you do everything legitimately,’ they say ‘Yes.’ And I have to remind them about the US actions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, where they acted either without any UN Security Council mandate or through perverting a mandate, as was the case in Libya,” Putin said. “Our partners, especially in the United States, always clearly formulate for themselves their geopolitical and national interests, pursue them relentlessly and then drag the rest of the world in, using the principle ‘You are either with us or against us.’ And harass those who refuse to be dragged in,” he added.
As for the sanctions Russia faces over Ukraine, Putin said those threatening them should think of the consequences to themselves if they follow that path. In an interconnected world a country may hurt another country if it wishes, but it would be damaged too. Threats are counterproductive in this situation, Putin warned. He added that if G8 members choose not to go to Sochi for a planned G8 summit, that would be up to them.
The agreement on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, signed on February 21 and certified by the German, Polish and French Foreign Ministers, is still not being fulfilled. Militants have still not laid down arms, they have not freed administrative buildings, or announced their intention to “make order” in all the Ukrainian regions. There are threats of physical reprisals, as President Viktor Yanukovych emphasized in his statement. The agreement to jointly investigate acts of violence and the obligation to create a national unity government, have been forgotten. Instead, a “government of champions”, which includes representatives of national extremists, is being created. The most convincing fact is that only a constitutional framework, ensuring the interests of all responsible political forces and all regions of Ukraine, corresponds to the interests of national peace and stability in the long term. There has already been an appeal to those western partners, who initially supported the opposition and who supported the Agreement of February 21, to become fully aware of their responsibility for its implementation. The statements that this document has already played its role are not serious. All the tasks listed and agreed on February 21 have not lost their meaning, rather they have become even more topical to prevent further polarization of the community as a result of radical actions.
The Russian government is currently engaging with the self-proclaimed governance of Ukraine with an aim to uphold the economic ties between the two countries. However, any normal relations would only be possible after Ukraine has fully legitimate branches of government. Moscow considers that Putin has no counterpart in Kiev now, so he personally has no partner to communicate with. In this respect the Russian President has stressed that Russia wants to see equal participation of all citizens of Ukraine in defining the future of the country. The resistance to the authorities in Kiev, which is evident currently in the eastern and southern Ukraine, shows clearly that currently Kiev does not have a nationwide mandate to govern the country. As a matter of fact, Ukraine should adopt a new constitution through a referendum so that all citizens feel their emotional attachment in that process, have an input on the formation of the new principles of how their nation should function.
That’s certainly not for others, but for the Ukrainians and the Ukrainian authorities to decide this way or another. After a legitimate government is formed, a new President is elected, a new parliament is elected, the Ukrainians would have a respite from this situation. Hence, Russia will be watching the planned presidential election in Ukraine and if it is conducted in an atmosphere of terror, Moscow will consider it unfair and will not recognize its results. Russia is committed to preserve the integrity of Ukraine as he said if Ukraine had undergone a revolution, then the nation that came out of it is not the same that it was before, similarly to how Russia transformed after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.
(Ibne Seraj is a senior journalist)